POLL BOOST FOR LABOUR
SURVEY SHOWS GAINS FOR AND TORIES, AS PLAID FALL BEHIND
A NEW opinion poll of more than 2,000 people has given Labour a major boost ahead of next month’s Senedd election.
The latest survey by Opinium Research for Sky News projects that Labour is is on course to win back votes it lost in 2019’s General Election and match its total of 29 Senedd seats which it won in the 2016 Welsh election.
The rebound in Labour’s support comes after a series of polls had put the party on course for its worst-ever Welsh election result.
However, the poll has much less good news for Plaid Cymru which appears to be losing support (down 2%) and is on course to be the third largest party in the Senedd – with the Tories winning the second-highest number of votes and seats.
This is despite 28% of those quizzed saying they would vote for independence for Wales – one of the highest figures seen in a political poll.
The Opinium poll projects that Adam Price’s party would lose two seats, when compared to its 2016 performance.
Adam Price also trailed in third place when people were asked who would make the best First Minister.
According to this polling, the Conservatives – who gained seats in the General Election in 2019 – would get a boost of eight seats compared to 2016’s Senedd election result.
The polling also found 11% of people who voted Conservative at the General Election two years ago would vote for Labour at this election.
While Labour would lose two constituency seats to the Conservatives, it would gain two regional seats from Plaid Cymru giving it 29 seats.
There is also a boost for Mark Drakeford. Of those asked, 29% said he would make the best First Minister. Andrew RT Davies was in second place with 10%.
In March, a YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, put Labour on course for its worst ever result – a total of 22 seats.
That poll projected Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party to take four seats.
The opinion poll did not give people the specific option of Abolish the
Assembly. People were offered the choice of Conservative, Labour, Plaid, Lib Dem, Greens, Ukip, “Some other party”, “Wouldn’t vote” and “Don’t know”.
How the Senedd would look
■ Labour: 29 seats (same as 2016)
■ Conservatives: 19 seats (up 8 on 2016)
■ Plaid Cymru: 10 seats (down two on 2016)
■ Lib Dem: 1 (no change)
■ Ukip: 1 (down six)
Who people said they would vote for in their constituency (Figures in brackets compared to 2016)
■ Labour: 40% (up 5%)
■ Conservatives: 30% (up 9%)
■ Plaid Cymru: 19% (down 2%)
■ Other party: 7% (down 8%)
■ Lib Dem : 4% (down 4%)
And who people said they would vote for on the regional list
■ Labour: 38% (up 6%)
■ Conservatives: 27% (up 7%)
■ Plaid Cymru: 19% (down 2%)
■ Green Party: 5% (up 2%)
■ Lib Dem: 4% (down 3%)
■ Ukip: 2% (down 11%)
Who people said would make the best First Minister:
■ Mark Drakeford (Labour): 29%
■ Andrew RT Davies (Conservatives): 10%
■ Adam Price (Plaid Cymru): 8%
■ Neil Hamilton (Ukip): 3%
■ Jane Dodds (Liberal Democrats): 3%
However, 14% said none of the major party leaders would be the best First Minister, while 32% did not know.
Should Wales be an Independent country?
The poll showed that 52% would vote no and 28% would vote yes for independence.
Of those asked, 14% said they did not know and 5% would not vote.
Of those who said they voted Plaid Cymru in the General Election in 2019, 29% would not vote for Welsh independence and 17% did not know.
It would mean 51% of party supporters asked would vote yes, with 46% saying no or did not know.
Those who said they would not vote, having previously supported Plaid Cymru, totalled 3%.