UK ‘not yet on top of the pandemic,
THE UK is not yet “on top” of the coronavirus pandemic but the Covid-19 vaccines are “winning the battle”, an expert has said.
Professor Anthony Harnden, deputy chairman of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), said the UK is making “really good progress” but urged people “not to throw it all away” and to get a booster jab when invited to do so.
The NHS has been making strides in the booster campaign.
In Wales, latest figures from Public Health Wales, reveal that 364,176 people have had a booster jab –including more than half of care home residents (65%).
In England, half of those eligible for one have taken up the offer so far.
Prof Harnden told Sky News: “It’s really important that people step forward for that booster because we are starting to see immunity waning, particularly with the AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines that were given right at the start of the vaccination campaign.
“So we’re very, very keen that they step forward and have their boosters which will top up their immunity, protect them, and actually protect them from transmitted to others.”
Asked whether the UK is “on top of the virus now”, he said: “I don’t think so yet; I think we’re winning the battle in this country and I think the vaccines are winning the battle – though infection rates are really quite high at the moment, actually death rates are relatively low compared to what they were in the first and second wave.
“So we are we are making really, really good progress, but we just don’t want to sort of throw it all away now.
“We just need to do what is right – have the booster when you’re eligible and be a bit sensible during these winter months – and I think by next summer we’ll be in a much, much better place, hopefully.”
At least 6.1 million booster doses of Covid-19 vaccine have been delivered across the UK.
It means at least one in eight people in the UK who have received a first
and second dose of vaccine are likely to have also received a booster.
Prof Harnden said it is not yet known whether a booster will be needed each year and a lot of vaccination programmes just require three doses with no annual top-up.
“Once we’ve given people boosts, we’ll be monitoring them over the course of the next year and we’ll see what their immunity levels do,” he said. “I mean, it’s quite possible that this virus will mutate further and become more transmissible but less virulent.
“And so that, actually, what it will give people that have been fully vaccinated with their booster is just a mild illness if they get it, which will give them some natural boost.
“The endemic state that we end up in the few years might actually be very, very good in terms of not seeing so much severe disease, but we just don’t know that yet.” (repeat for those needing)
Meanwhile, the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group told MPs that it is unfair to “bash the UK” over high numbers of Covid cases and compare it with the rest of Europe when the UK has such high levels of testing, .
Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, who helped create the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, said there were reasons the UK was seeing a high number of confirmed cases, which have been averaging more than 40,000 a day for over a week.
He said it was true the UK had high case rates, but this is “very much related to the amount of testing”, including in schools.
Sir Andrew told the Commons Science and Technology Committee: “If
you look across Western Europe, we have about 10 times more tests done each day than some other countries, this is per head of population.
“So we really have to always adjust by looking at the data... we do have a lot of transmission at the moment, but it’s not right to say that those rates are really telling us something that we can compare internationally.”
He suggested the UK Government should look to do what was right for the British people rather than comparing internationally.
“A lot of our policy decisions should be very much focused on what we think is right for this country, not by saying other countries have much less (cases), because it’s very difficult to make those assessments,” the professor said. “If you make the adjustment of cases in relation to the rates of testing, and look at test positivity, currently Germany has the highest test positivity rate in Europe.
“So I think when we look at these data it’s really important not to sort of bash the UK with a very high case rate, because actually it’s partly related to very high testing. I’m not trying to deny that there’s not plenty of transmission, because there is, but it’s the comparisons that are problematic.”
Sir Andrew said there was a need to look at hospital admissions and deaths more so than cases, adding that most intensive care cases were among the unvaccinated.
He said there were questions about booster doses and whether the vaccines are working against severe disease, but it remained the case that intensive care admissions could be cut by persuading the unvaccinated to take vaccines.
“Now you could argue that all the other measures, and having more people boosted, mask-wearing and so on will also have an impact, of course it will do on those unvaccinated individuals, so if we want to protect intensive care there are measures to do that (such as restrictions)... but also, we could be vaccinating those individuals, focusing on that, which would protect intensive care,” he said.
Sir Andrew said hospital admissions now were “quite a different story from last year”, with the vast majority of people now going in having shorter hospital stays and much milder disease.
Many of these people also have underlying health conditions “which are destabilised by having a relatively mild Covid infection”, he said.
Physicians see this every winter with other viruses, Sir Andrew said, adding “that people who are frail with various health conditions will be tipped over the edge as a result of those viral infections and Covid is doing that as well.”
He warned the NHS was “incredibly fragile” but “that fragility is only contributed a small amount by Covid and so vaccinating is not going to suddenly make the NHS not be on its knees, where it is at the moment”.
The eminent scientist said the pandemic has had a major impact on waiting lists and while vaccines for the unvaccinated would make a big difference for intensive care, “this still doesn’t change the overall needle on where we are with a very stressed NHS”.
It comes as the number of deaths involving coronavirus registered each week in England and Wales has risen slightly, but figures remain at a low level.
A total of 713 deaths registered in the week ending October 15 mentioned Covid-19 on the death certificate, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is up 7% on the previous week, with every region in England except the South West recording an increase.
However, deaths are still well below the levels seen during the winter.
Some 8,433 deaths involving Covid19 were registered in England and Wales in the week to January 29, at the peak of the second wave of the virus.
By contrast, the weekly total has been between 600 and 900 for the last two months.
However, there are still more people dying than normal for this time of the year.
The total number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week to October 15 was 13.9% above the pre-pandemic five-year average, the ONS said – the equivalent of 1,366 more deaths.