Third wave looks like it’s peaked as rates drop
CORONAVIRUS infection rates have fallen for two days consecutively and positivity rates have also dropped, suggesting Wales is past the third wave peak.
The seven-day infection rate reached a record level of 719.9 cases per 100,000 people on Tuesday – the highest reported rate since the coronavirus pandemic began.
However, due to a reporting delay on Monday, the figures were already on the decline by
Tuesday. And they’ve continued to decline during the week, giving confidence to the latest modelling which predicted the third wave would peak at some point between late September and midOctober.
Figures show how following a small dip in Covid-19 cases and test positivity in the second half of July, cases continued to rise again to over 650 cases per 100,000 by the end of September before a secondary peak this month. Meanwhile, positivity rates have hovered between 15% and 20% from September onwards and increased in the week up to October 21.
The latest modelling by the Welsh Government Technical Advisory Group looks at how infection rates and hospitalisations might look between now and March. Carried out by Swansea University, the modelled scenarios estimated an increase in cases from August 2021 with peaks likely in late September to mid-October and likely peaks in hospitalisations and deaths in October 2021.
Based on the assumption that the Delta strain of the virus is 80% more transmissible, the modelling estimated there would be around 2,000 and 2,300 Covid-19 cases per day from October. In reality, daily cases were higher than modelled, with 4,051 cases recorded for October 18.
All of the model scenarios suggest we may now have reached the peak number of Covid-19 cases in this third wave of the pandemic. However there is still uncertainty. In England there has been a long plateau in case rates so we may see a similar pattern in Wales.
In Wales, the chief medical officer has warned stricter measures will be needed if people don’t follow Covid rules.
The modelling predicts that between October 1 and December 31 we will see a total of 41,300 cases and a further 540 deaths in Wales, with daily cases peaking at 2,100 and daily deaths peaking at 10.
The reason why this third wave hasn’t been as disastrous as either the first or second is that, so far, the number of people being hospitalised with coronavirus has been significantly less. This is largely due to the roll out of the Covid vaccine.
The number of coronavirus cases in Welsh hospitals has increased since late August but nowhere near the rate or level seen at the start of the second wave. While there is no definitive peak discernible in the reported hospital data, the latest modelling predicts hospital admissions between now and December 31 will also start to decrease.
The model predicts there will be 2,000 hospital admissions in the final quarter of 2021, and 170 ICU admissions.