No change yet but Covid Pass extension still remains on the table for Wales
THREE weeks ago First Minister Mark Drakeford warned that if cases were not going down in Wales he would introduce Covid Passes for hospitality.
After two successive three week reviews, the First Minister said on October 30: “We would do things like extend the use of the Covid pass to other settings.
“We’ll be talking to hospitality in this three-week period to prepare them for the fact that if different numbers do continue to rise then using the pass to access hospitality may become a necessary measure. We hope it won’t be, we want the numbers to go down.”
Fast forward three weeks and, while the latest Welsh Government review has resulted in no immediate change to the current rules in Wales, there remains a very mixed picture.
For almost a fortnight cases plummeted from an all time high of 730 cases per 100,000 to 483 seven days ago.
However, there have now been seven days of continuous rises. Still significantly below the previous peak but altogether a concerning direction.
It is a very complicated picture. Modelling has suggested for months that cases in Wales should start falling at some point but a combination of school reopening, half terms and a serious mix up at a Covid testing lab in Wolverhampton has made the data hard to interpret.
On top of the case rate there is also the hospital admission data which seems to have stabilised but is still very high as we head into a possible flu season.
Also skewing analysis is the fact there is waning immunity but also a booster rollout with the jabs being expanded to people aged 40-49.
So what are the chances of the First Minister bringing in Covid passes before Christmas?
It is absolutely on the table.
The Welsh Government has indicated that the next step to control the virus, if needed, would be to bring in Covid passes to pubs and restaurants having already introduced them to concert halls and cinemas this week.
When asked about the current situation in the Senedd this week, Mr Drakeford said: “[Cases] are up significantly in Scotland in the last week; they are up very significantly in countries very close to the United Kingdom. So, nobody should think that we are somehow out of the woods on this yet. The Cabinet will look very carefully at the numbers.”
However he did say that the recent falls did give Wales some head room to work with, adding: “We are thankfully in a better position than we were three weeks ago, and that will form the context for the decisions that we announce at the end of this week.”
All this was somewhat contradicted by the finance minister Rebecca Evans who wrongly stated the prevalence in Wales going down that same day.
We approached the Welsh Government asking what number of cases would prompt them to expand the use of the Covid pass.
We asked the following questions:
1. The First Minister has indicated that the criteria for introducing Covid passes into hospitality is cases continuing to rise. Is it fair to say that if cases are falling or stable that Covid passes won’t be introduced?
2. If cases are falling but hospitalisations are rising would the Welsh Government still bring in Covid passes?
3. Has there been any evidence that Covid passes have already made a positive impact on the infection rate in Wales?
The only response we received to these questions was a Welsh Government spokesman who said: “We will provide an update at the three week review later this week.”
So what to make of this? Well Drakeford has previously suggested that it is about direction of travel. In a previous interview, he said: “I think the crucial thing is less a specific number than the direction of travel. If coronavirus continues to increase in Wales as it has at the last three reviews we will reach a point where its impact in society and the health service is such that further measures will be unavoidable.
“If we can stabilise and reverse that trend that will allow us, I believe, to remain where we have been for the last nine weeks with the lowest level of restrictions we have seen since coronavirus began.
“For me it is not a matter to be able to say if it is this number up or that number down. Trend up, we are in trouble and other things will need to happen. Trend down, and we will be able to stay with the level of restrictions that we have managed for the nine weeks.”
When challenged about the effectiveness of Covid jabs by Welsh Conservative Paul Davies Mr Drakeford responded: “We do follow the chief medical officer’s advice, and he supports our position on the Covid pass.” In an interview with Wales’ chief medical officer, Dr Frank Atherton, we asked what the scientific underpinnings were for the passes. The CMO did not offer a ringing endorsement, saying that one of the bigger advantages of the pass was it reminded people that Covid existed.
He said: “The evidence is still building around Covid passes. Lots of other countries around the world have adopted them. Wales decided to adopt them as well. The actual direct impact is probably quite small. But there are bigger impacts in terms of the messages that gives and the reminder to people that we’re not out of the woods yet.
“So it’s probably a small positive benefit to Covid passes. What we have to do when we have such high rates of community transmission is to take anything which gives us more benefit. So face coverings give us a small benefit, social distancing gives a larger benefit. Covid passes probably give a small benefit and we’ve got to add those things up.”
What we have to do when we have such high rates of community transmission is to take anything which gives us more benefit
Dr Frank Atherton