Different challenges facing Pivac ahead of World Cup

THE great thing about history is it provides us with precedent.

We know what Wales achieved at World Cups under Warren Gatland and we know what the Kiwi did to bring about those results.

So when we assess what Wayne Pivac has done up until the halfway point between the 2019 World Cup and the 2023 edition, we have something to compare it to.

A buzzword for both head coaches has been “depth”. It is the theme which cropped up more than any other during Gatland’s final World Cup cycle and it has been the word often on Pivac’s lips in this most recent autumn campaign.

In fact, it has felt as if Pivac has spent more time creating this depth than he has naming his strongest possible side since he took over in 2019. That has largely been down to injuries, in all fairness, but it makes it difficult to assess just how good Wales can be under him.

There are, of course, intangibles. The styles of play under Pivac and Gatland are two very different things.

But when it comes to substance, the cold hard numbers, the two are remarkably similar.

Let’s take a closer look. The statistics below are based on the first two years of the last three World Cup cycles, the first two under Gatland and the most recent under Pivac.

NUMBER OF NEW CAPS

2011 to 2013: 25; 2015 to 2017: 19; 2019 to 2021: 22

It has felt like Pivac has been constantly experimenting over the last two years but, in fact, Gatland dished out more debuts in the first two years of the cycle leading to the 2015 World Cup.

Then, Wales were slow at blooding new talent in the second full World Cup cycle of the Gatland era. In the first year after the 2015 tournament, they had dished out debuts to just three new players, but then gave out a whopping 16 the following year.

Of the 44 players who made their debuts between 2011-2013 and 2015-2017, eight of them went on to feature at the following World Cups.

In his first two years, Pivac has fallen slap bang in the middle with 22 debutants. It remains to be seen how many will feature in 2023.

However, it is worth noting that a game against the Barbarians in 2012 was a capped match and saw four players make their debuts. But Pivac’s first game in charge against the Barbarians was not deemed a capped Test, so is not part of these statistics.

HOW THE MIDPOINT AUTUMN CAMPAIGNS WENT

In 2013, Wales faced South Africa, Argentina, Tonga and Australia. They lost the first and last encounter, while winning the middle two.

The 30-26 defeat to the Wallabies was tough to take. It was the ninth consecutive defeat to that particular opposition as Wales proved incapable of turning Six Nations success into wins against the big southern hemisphere sides.

At this point, Wales had lost 22 out of their last 23 Tests against New Zealand, South Africa and Australia, a record which would only worsen before the 2015 World Cup. For that reason, it was a less than satisfactory campaign because their primary target of getting a southern hemisphere scalp had been missed.

It was a similar story in 2017. Defeats to Australia and New Zealand were separated by a deeply unconvincing 13-6 win over Georgia and a narrow 24-22 victory over South Africa.

Wales could take heart from beating the Springboks but, in truth, the visitors were a shadow of their former selves during this period.

It was not a vintage Wales side which finished that campaign, though. They were without the likes of Liam Williams, George North, Jonathan Davies, Ken Owens, Tomas Francis and Sam Warburton, who would later retire. Fast forward to the autumn of 2021, Wales faced an astonishing absentee list of almost 20 players, including significant hitters like Alun Wyn Jones, Ken Owens, Justin Tipuric, Josh Navidi, Taulupe Faletau, George North and Leigh Halfpenny.

Their campaign became one of development, even if that was not Pivac’s intention. Wales’ record was once again two wins out of four but with the twist that it was achieved with a largely unfamiliar side. That gives the campaign a little more credibility than those which have gone before.

WHAT HAPPENED IN THE FOLLOWING CAMPAIGNS?

Of course, attention quickly tuns to the following Six Nations after an autumn campaign. The regions’ European and Christmas fixtures tend to come and go in the blink of an eye and suddenly players are back in international camp.

A mixed Six Nations campaign played out in 2014. Wales were absolutely thumped 26-3 by Ireland in Dublin and looked way off the pace. They were also second best at Twickenham and that defeat ended their hopes of the title. They did thrash Scotland 51-3 in the final game following a red card for Stuart Hogg but the campaign was not a success. They finished third on points difference.

It was a similar story in 2018. Backto-back defeats to England and Ireland wrecked their chances of winning the tournament. It was tight at Twickers but they were once again comprehensively outplayed in Dublin. England, though, had a dismal year, winning just two matches, meaning Wales finished the tournament in second place, behind Grand Slam champions Ireland.

WHAT HAPPENED AT THE WORLD CUPS THAT FOLLOWED?

Injuries, that’s what. Both of the campaigns - 2015 and 2019 - were hit by a crippling injury list as the tournament wore on.

In 2015 it was undeniable, players were dropping at an alarming rate, while in 2019 Gatland rejected claims that the tournament had caught up with his players after the semi-final defeat to South Africa but the objective view was that it had.

Ultimately, Wales were knocked out in the quarter-final in 2015 by the Springboks and it was the same opposition again in 2019, only this time it was just one game from the final.

Both campaigns offered hope but when the injuries piled up, it became an uphill struggle.

Wales were better equipped for it in 2019 with a plethora of relatively new faces seeing out a memorable quarterfinal victory against France.

But they were unable to hold on against the eventual world champions despite a valiant effort. Jonathan Davies played the game basically on one leg, and George North and Tomas Francis both left the game early with injuries.

If history is anything to go by, Pivac should be preparing for a similar nightmare in 2023.

WINNING RECORDS

2011 to 2013: (25 games) 13 W, 12 L; 2015 to 2017: (24 games) 12 W, 1 D, 11 L ; 2019 to 2021: (22 games) 10 W, 1 D, 11 L

Ultimately, all that matters in top-level sport is how many games you win.

The pandemic meant Wales couldn’t tour New Zealand in 2020 but, if anything, that probably protects Pivac’s record slightly as getting results down there would have been a long shot.

The records, though, are pretty similar to Gatland’s and have been achieved despite blooding fractionally more players.

This year’s summer fixtures were also slightly more taxing. Yes, there was the game against Canada but then two against a fully-loaded, and muchimproved, Argentina side.

It was a tougher schedule than the equivalent in 2017 - Tonga and Samoa - and in 2013 - Japan.

HONOURS

2011 to 2013: 2012 Grand Slam, 2013 Six Nations; 2015 to 2017: N/A ; 2019 to 2021: 2021 Six Nations

When you’re head coach of Wales, there is not only a demand to develop a squad which can win the Rugby World Cup, but there is also the demand that you do not jeopardise your chances of winning while doing it. It’s not one or the other, you must do both.

Outside of the Barbarians Test, Wales brought through six new players between the end of the 2011 World Cup and their 2013 Six Nations triumph. In the equivalent time period - and without a summer tour but with an extended autumn schedule in 2020 Pivac gave out 11 debuts between the end of the 2019 World Cup and the 2021 Six Nations success. However, after the dismal 2020 autumn period, there were calls for him to be sacked.

Rewind a little, and Wales were not far off in the 2016 Six Nations but the 2017 edition was not easy on the eye and included defeats to Scotland, England and France.

In short, it’s tough to quench the seemingly insatiable thirst for creating depth while also trying to win things.

CONCLUSION

On paper, Pivac’s approach - and results, for that matter - is very comparable to Gatland’s in terms of how he is blooding new talent.

But the semantics are important. The real difference is that during Gatland’s two full World Cup cycles, the core of his squad were at the peak of their powers.

You know the players: Halfpenny, North, Jonathan Davies, Biggar, Faletau, Alun Wyn Jones, Ken Owens and many other influential players.

The problem Pivac has is that the tried, tested and trusted spine of the former side are not all nailed-on starters anymore. And of the aforementioned players, five of them are currently sidelined with injuries.

It means the safety blanket that Gatland had is not necessarily wrapped around the shoulders of Pivac.

That’s not to write these players off. You’d be a fool to do so, particularly with North, who is still only 29 and was playing some of his best rugby before his knee injury.

But the next 12 months or so will be critical. Pivac may be forced into making some colossal decisions which Gatland never had to face.