Swans must repeat least season’s trick
WYCOMBE Wanderers have only played two Championship matches but many fans are already writing them off as the worst side in the division.
I would usually say it’s too early in the season to make this kind of concrete judgement but in fairness to those condemning Wycombe to failure, they may have a point.
The Chairboys are perhaps a little fortunate to be in this league in the first place. When League One was scrapped last season due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Wycombe were on the slide and sat eighth in the table, a point outside the playoff spots.
Fortunately for Gareth Ainsworth’s side, a points-pergame algorithm was used to calculate the final standings and Wycombe jumped into the top six. They then went on to win the play-offs against the odds, securing a place in the second tier for the first time in the club’s 133-year history.
Following its shock promotion the club worked hard to prepare for the step up in quality but the opening two games provided a rude awakening. A late home defeat to fellow Championship newcomers Rotherham was a hammer blow on the opening day and this was followed by last week’s 5-0 demolition away at Blackburn.
Two games into the season they sit bottom of the league with six goals conceded, zero scored and no points to show for their efforts.
Most clubs would relish a match against Wycombe right now but many Swansea fans are strangely anxious about facing them.
“You know what comes next…”
“This is exactly the type of game the Swans lose.”
“It would be so typical of Swansea to lose this game.”
I have heard and read all of the above in the past week from Swans fans who feel this match is nothing but a massive banana skin but is this idea that Swansea are prone to slip-ups against lowly opposition really justified?
We are often told that anybody can beat anybody in the Championship so of course, a defeat to Wycombe is a very real possibility. Every dog has its day and they developed a formidable reputation in their promotion season as a tough team to play against so the Swans will need to have their wits about them.
Those glass half empty fans will also have vivid memories of upsets over recent seasons when the Swans were turned over by sides like Ipswich in 2018 and Stoke in 2019, both of which had endured horrific starts to the season and were winless before travelling to the Liberty.
It’s also worth pointing out that just a few weeks ago the Swans were humbled by a League 2 side in Newport County as they exited the Carabao Cup.
But the stats under Steve Cooper actually suggest the Swans are far from the upsetmagnets many fans perceive them to be.
During the last campaign the Swans struggled to beat the best teams in the division, winning just four regular season matches against sides which finished the season in the top half of the table. However they were remarkably consistent against the worst teams in the division.
Amazingly, only champions Leeds United dropped fewer points against bottom half opposition in 2019-20.
The likes of West Brom, Fulham and Cardiff were all more likely to slip up against these sides than Swansea.
The Swans lost just three games in the whole of last season against teams in the bottom half, fewer than any other club. Against the very worst in the division their record was even more staggering.
They dropped just two points against last season’s bottom three, the best record in the division.
Many fans often think of Swansea as a club susceptible to shocks against inferior opponents and that may have been true in the past. In 201819 the Swans dropped 25 per cent more points against the bottom half compared with 2019-20 and under Graham Potter they lost to two of that season’s bottom three.
One of the biggest differences seen under Cooper’s management is how they get the job done against teams from the bottom half of the table.
Last season they were far less likely to get caught with their pants down against these sides and it was one of the key reasons why they squeezed into the top playoffs.
The margins were so tight, every point and even every goal counted as they leapfrogged Nottingham Forest in spectacular style. But the numbers suggest the differing ways Swansea and Forest approached weaker teams made a massive contribution to one side’s success and the other side’s failure.
Forest were far less clinical and far less professional when it came to seeing off these teams.
They lost a third of their matches against the bottom half and they were the only team in the entire division to get more points against the top half than they managed against the bottom half.
They were often able to raise their game against the best in the division, registering wins against five of the top six, but they regularly faltered when it came to shooting fish in a barrel and this eventually cost them dearly.
The ability to deal with weaker opponents is an attribute we probably take for granted. A lot of clubs find it surprisingly tough to play against the underdog.
Fans can be forgiven for assuming Swansea’s record against the bottom half last season was par for the course, after all you would expect top half teams to win most of matches against the teams below them. In truth the Swans’ ability to consistently pick up points in this way was an under-appreciated skill last year and without it, they would not have finished anywhere near the top six.
Beating the best teams is important for any side aiming for promotion but beating the worst teams is also essential.
Swansea’s reliability against the bottom half was critical to their sixth place finish last season and if they want to emulate or improve on that success, they probably need to produce similar consistency this time around, hopefully starting today at Adams Park.