Expert hopes local lockdown areas will see drop in cases in three weeks’ time
A TOP public health official in Wales has said he is hoping to see a reduction in the number of cases in three weeks’ time if people stick to the restrictions in local lockdown areas.
Dr Giri Shankar, who is a coronavirus incident manager for Public Health Wales, was talking about how one area of Wales has the highest incidences of coronavirus in the country and whether the three-week local lockdown in Caerphilly has been working.
The public health official said it will take at least three weeks to see if the restrictions are working.
He told BBC Radio Wales: “We believe a period of at least three weeks is essential for restrictions to show the desired effect. It will be significantly compounded by how societies and communities accept it.
“We know that for the success of any public health intervention, community acceptance is a key thing, and with that period of time we should be able to see some reduction in the case numbers.”
Blaenau Gwent, which is under a local lockdown, continues to record the highest rate of infections in Wales with over 300 positive cases per 100,000 population in the last week, according to Monday’s cases and deaths update. It is also higher than anywhere in England, where Burnley has the highest rate of 269.9.
“The current highest rates are in Blaenau Gwent, Rhondda Cynon Taf and the other areas under limited restrictions are all higher compared to the rest of the country,” Dr Shankar told BBC Radio Wales.
“Blaenau Gwent is an area that has got a smallish population compared to the neighbouring local authorities, so even a small number fluctuation day to day can make a significant change to the rate. Nonetheless, Blaenau Gwent cases are considerably higher.
“It is one of the highest in the UK, and we will continue to monitor. Hopefully, over the next three weeks we should see a reduction subject to people complying diligently with the requirements.”
Talking about concerns that the virus will move from younger generations to people who are more vulnerable, the doctor also told BBC Breakfast that he had been made aware that a number of relatively young people had been admitted to intensive care over the weekend. He added that they were “cautiously optimistic” that the situation in Caerphilly, which was the first county to go into lockdown three weeks ago, is stabilising.
Dr Shankar said: “We now have Caerphilly at just 50 per 100,000 population, the same rate at the start of the restrictions on September 7.
“We are optimistic that the trend will continue further downwards, hopefully when the rates go further down then we should be in a position to discuss lifting those limited restrictions. The length of time will depend on how compliant people are. What we want to do is to make sure that the transmission is halted, vulnerable people in society are protected, our hospitals and the NHS is protected so that we can continue to provide essential other services.
“I am cautiously optimistic that we should be able to see further reduction in Caerphilly.”
He said Flintshire, Anglesey, Denbighshire and Conwy were being closely monitored, and they would be working with the leaders of the local councils.