Could Wales be warming to Plaid vision for independence?
Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price is due to give his speech to the party conference this evening. In this exclusive interview, he speaks to acting political editor Will Hayward about his bid for an independent Wales
Will Hayward: Independence has always been something your party has been in favour of but it seems like, as leader, you have been pushing for it a lot more strongly. What has prompted that change? Adam Price: I think clearly it is our number one policy goal. It is our reason for being really. We are all talking about independence more now because the context is changing around us. I suppose you could say history accelerating, the rising support for independence in Wales and the broader context around us is changing as well. It is a mainstream issue now for many, many more people.
WH: Is a pandemic really the time to be talking about independence? Why do you think this is something we should be discussing during this crisis? AP: There is never a time I think that we shouldn’t be talking about independence because, from our perspective, independence is really the only sustainable long-term solution to Wales’ endemic problems.
In a way the pandemic has brought to the fore many of those issues that are actually at the heart of the independence question. The contrast in the approach between the Welsh Government compared to the Westminster government has massive approval from the Welsh public. It is a much more health first, more consistent and cautious approach compared to the shambolic flip-flopping message from Westminster.
You see a lot of people saying: “I never thought I would say this but I see the case for Welsh independence”.
This year and its challenges is why support for independence is rising. I think Brexit is a turning point for many people as well.
I think a lot of people have come to the conclusion when looking at Westminster, they think, “We can do better than that”. It’s difficult to see otherwise really isn’t it?
WH: On the subject of Brexit, a lot of the visions for an independent Wales have Wales as an EU member state. Yet, especially outside of its large cities, Wales voted very strongly in favour of leaving the EU. How do you square that? AP: The Independence Commission [the Plaidcommissioned report released last week] went into this at some length.
I think they are right to suggest we need to to decouple the questions in the sense that when a referendum comes, it needs to be a referendum on independence rather than a referendum on independence and EU membership. The question of the EU membership has to be a question for the Welsh people at a later date. We become independent of the nation first and then we decide what our relationships are going to be like with our European neighbours.
Obviously as a party we will want to consider now the policy of aiming for EFTA (European Free Trade Association) membership which has the benefit of meaning that Wales is part of a wider European framework and three of the four members of EFTA are also members of the single market for the EEA. Obviously you are still not part of the political frameworks of the EU. That would stop issues around the border of Wales being in the EU, and England not.
But in my view it is a decision we make after becoming an independent nation. There will be many people especially young people in Wales who are both inspired by independence and by membership of the European Union. That is a discussion and a decision we can make as an independent country.
WH: Support for Welsh independence may be at the highest its ever been but, for example, most people are in favour of House of Lords reform but you don’t see the Liberal Democrats winning majorities. Is it really the biggest issue for people? I’m sure it is an issue but how much do you think that’s going to be turned into votes? AP: It is a very good question. Academics who study this talk about salience, where you can be in favour of something but it’s not the number one priority for you in deciding how you vote.
There is a challenge there for us in the wider independence movement in how do you make our future as a nation more relevant to people. I think that we have to build a bridge in people’s minds about the journey we are about go on if we hopefully form a government next year.
It’s a bit like what happened in Scotland. But the turning point came once the SNP were elected because that changed the dynamic in Scottish politics. People saw an inspiring and ambitious government who were also delivering. That was the bridge for many people who were just a bit indy curious to becoming indy confident.
WH: If you were to become the First Minister next year, would you hold an independence referendum during your term in office and, if so, how long after taking office would you want to hold that? AP: The Independence Commission has made some recommendations and we are going to take some time as a party to discuss those recommendations. We will have more to say about the details of their recommendations, such as holding an advisory referendum in the first term with a view to a binding referendum in the second term.
If we see, in the course of the next term, the perfectly possible scenario where the United Kingdom as we currently know it comes to an end, if there is a Scottish independence referendum that delivers a yes vote, under those circumstances you would have to ask the Welsh people about their constitutional future. Then a Welsh independence referendum certainly would have to happen because it would change the context entirely.
WH: Would an independence referendum be Plaid Cymru’s price for supporting a Labour administration if Mark Drakeford didn’t win enough seats in the next election? Can you imagine a situation where you would go into coalition with Labour again? AP: No, is the answer to the second question, if we were a junior partner certainly. That wouldn’t deliver the level of transformational change we need. We have had one party in power for 21 years and it is the oldest slogan in politics – it is time for a change. So I have taken that off the table because it wouldn’t deliver.
I will give you a hypothetical. If we were short of a majority and Labour were prepared to consider becoming a junior partner to us then obviously we would not reject that out of hand.
The other scenario is equal partners such as we have seen happen in Ireland. Those options are qualitatively different because you are not in a position of having another party effectively driving the political agenda. Being a junior party in a coalition would not deliver the kind of change that we would need.
In terms of red lines in any discussions, my experience is that you don’t want to hold those discussions in advance. But clearly from our perspective self-determination is an absolutely critical principle. We would never trade away our principle of self-determination for the Welsh people.
WH: Would you take your party into a rainbow coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Conservatives or any other parties? AP: If I had a pound every time someone asked me that question our campaign finance problem would be solved.
I have also made it clear that we would not enter a coalition under any circumstances with the Conservative Party.
This is not to be churlish or petty but there is just too big a political divide between us.
In 2007 arguably the Conservative Party was at a different point and in a different place.
Certainly ideologically it has moved to the right quite significantly. It is after all the Conservative and Unionist Party so it would never be a natural ally for us. But now the ideological gulf for us is far too wide, it just wouldn’t work.
WH: Boris Johnson in Prime Minister’s Questions refused to stop tourists from lockdown areas of England travelling to Wales, after the First Minister had written to him requesting he do so. If you were the First Minister today what would you do to sort out this issue? AP: First of all I think it’s important that the Welsh Government communicates its position to people in other parts of the UK. We have previously had the Scottish government at various points asking people from lockdown areas to not travel to Scotland. That is a tool the Welsh Government does have and it needs to be used.
In terms of the legal position, in the wake of the UK Government refusing the very reasonable request from the First Minister, would be to examine the legal options that it has.
It needs to do that with conjunction with the police forces to make sure it is effective. Obviously at this time there are significant pressures on the police forces’ ability to police existing rules. It is about sitting down with the police and asking them what is practical.
I suspect that those conversations would lead to the conclusion that rather than policing the border as such, you would be policing at a local level.
WH: What would you have done differently during the pandemic if you were the First Minister? AP: I think the Welsh Government in the early phases of the pandemic were hewing too closely to the Westminster line. I think they were too late into lockdown. We have seen discussion at the UK level that it should have been a week earlier. You will remember there was a reluctance to postpone the Wales Scotland game. That should have been done.
There clearly wasn’t enough testing very early on. The fact that the Welsh Government along with the UK Government moved away from the WHO advice on testing was in itself a massive red flag. Testing capacity was going to be an issue and I think we should have developed our own capacity at a much earlier stage. We had Welsh universities who had the relevant expertise who were crying out and writing to the Welsh Government offering their services.
We have ended up, even six months down the line, where we are relying too heavily on the failing UK Government Lighthouse Labs.
WH: What do you think the Welsh Government has done well during the crisis? AP: Their cautiousness was clearly the right thing to do. Sticking to the stayat-home message when Westminster dropped that, has been hugely supported by the majority of people in Wales. It was the right call.
WH: When you look at the political map of Wales, where do you look at and think “we can win seats there”? AP: We want and need to win seats in all parts of Wales in every region. Yes, we have an electoral strategy but we’re not going to be talking about particular seats.
We are in a strong position to take regional seats in every part of Wales actually. There are a large number of constituency seats we are also strongly targeting. Clearly the valleys and former coalfield areas are strong areas in terms of our constituency seats.
It is going to be a very very tight election. Potentially, according to our own electoral modelling, 5,000 to 10,000 in the right places could be the difference between me becoming First Minister and us not securing that victory.
Like every political party we will accept votes from everywhere but particularly former labour voters that are warm to our message and party and have a desire to change.
This is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The stars don’t align often and the stars are aligning, not for our party but for Wales. There’s a window there for us
- Adam Price