Rolling lockdowns ‘to become normal’
WALES’S top doctor has warned that Wales is likely to see a number of “rolling lockdowns” over the winter months.
Dr Frank Atherton said that areas are “likely to be going in and out of local lockdowns over the coming months”.
Sixteen out of Wales’s 22 local authorities are currently facing restrictions, affecting around two million people.
Rhondda Cynon Taf, which went into lockdown on September 17, currently has the highest rate of infections in Wales with 179.1 cases per 100,000 people based on a rolling seven-day average, up from 175.7 on Saturday.
Merthyr Tydfil closely follows this figure at 179.0 per 100,000 of population, down from 189 per 100,000 on Saturday.
Caerphilly was the first county to go into local lockdown on September 8, and the latest figure for the area on Sunday was 54.7.
The Wales overall infection rate is 78.8 per 100,000, up on Saturday’s figure of 76.2.
Wales’s chief medical officer told BBC Radio
Wales: “It is going to be a difficult winter. We are hoping for the best, but we have to prepare for a difficult time.
“The virus is with us now and we don’t have a vaccine, that is some way around the corner. We hope into early next year we will start to get a vaccine, but for the foreseeable future the virus is with us and we have to learn to live with it.”
His comments echo those of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who warned that the UK is in for “bumpy, bumpy months ahead” in the lead up to Christmas as coronavirus cases continue to rise.
In a BBC interview with Andrew Marr, the PM said the UK could still be in for a “tough winter”.
But Mr Johnson said he still believed things could be “significantly different” by Christmas.
“What you’ve got to do is realise that this is a pandemic in which people need to understand that there is hope – and there is hope,” he said.
“We will get through this and get through this very well.”
Talking about how local lockdowns in Wales are working, Dr Atherton said: “We have seen in Caerphilly some reduced movement of people. The data shows that and that is translating, we hope, into some reduced numbers of cases.
“We are cautiously optimistic that the arrangements we are putting in place at a local authority level are making an
impact, but we will have to keep a close eye on it.
“It is something we keep constantly under review. We look at the cases on a daily basis and if the trend continues and the number of cases per 100,000 population over a seven-day period comes below 50, then we can start to think along with the local authority about whether we can start to reduce those restrictions.
“The worst thing to do would be to lift them too early. I suspect what we are going to see over the winter is that we are going to see areas coming in and out of local restrictions. I think people need to start getting ready for that sort of scenario.”
He also went on to explain why there are local lockdowns in place instead of a national one.
“Different areas will go through a resurgence of the virus at different paces,” he said. “What we are seeing at the moment is that it is predominantly urban areas in South and North Wales.
“The rural parts of Wales are not seeing the resurgence we are seeing elsewhere, so it would seem inappropriate to put those restrictions in those places.
“It is why we are working through a process of local lockdown. That may change.”
Speaking about the situation as whole, he said that most schools are not seeing cases and that robust systems are in place when pupils need to be tested.
“The worst thing to do would be to close schools at the moment,” he said. “We are certainly nowhere near that position.
“The arrangements the sector has put in place and local authorities are working with the schools, they are as safe as they can be and there are robust methods to make sure that if people get symptoms they can be tested.”
He also warned parents that they have to think about Halloween and trick or treating safely.