LOCKDOWN IS LOOMING
‘GROWING CONSENSUS’ FOR DIFFERENT MEASURES
THE WELSH Government is today poised to announce new action to tackle the spread of coronavirus across Wales.
Officials last night said there is a “growing consensus” of a need to “introduce a different set of measures” as the virus continues to spread more quickly during the autum and winter.
Ministers are set to make a final decision at a cabinet meeting this morning, with the First Minister set to update the nation today on any decision taken.
A Welsh Government spokesman said: “Ministers have held a number of meetings over the weekend with senior Welsh Government officials, scientists and public health experts to consider their advice on a potential need for a ‘fire break’ set of measures to control the virus.
“The Welsh Cabinet met [on Sunday] evening to consider that advice. The Cabinet will meet again [on Monday] morning to make a final decision. The First Minister will update the people of Wales on any decisions taken [on Monday].”
The update comes after a leaked letter suggested a two-week “circuitbreaker” lockdown is to be introduced in Wales from Friday.
According to the letter, the lockdown would begin at 6pm on Friday and last until November 9, and would see all but essential retail outlets close.
The details of the plan were contained in a letter from a regional director of the Confederation of Passenger Transport to its members in Wales, which was posted on Twitter on Saturday.
But the letter has not been corroborated by the Welsh Government, which insists a final decision on such a move was not being taken until this morning.
In the letter, dated October 16, John Pockett writes: “The Welsh Government will announce on Monday a ‘ circuit break’ lockdown to begin at 1800 on Friday, 23 October, and continue in force until 0001 on Monday, 9 November.
“As this is a very fast moving situation with decisions still to be made by ministers, much of the detail has not yet been agreed by the government. Nevertheless, I wanted to let you know what we know so far.”
Mr Pockett said the lockdown would “take us back to the situation in March” when pubs, cafés, restaurants and hairdressers were closed.
“It covers the half-term break (October 23, to November 2,) but some schools will reopen on November 2,” he wrote.
“Ministers have not yet determined the details on this; it seems that primary schools will reopen, but a decision on secondary schools will be made over the weekend.”
He said public transport would be for “essential journeys only” and the Welsh Government was yet to decide what level of services would run during the lockdown.
The letter added: “I appreciate that this information is very limited and I am sure that you will have questions, but that, at the moment, this is very much as we know.”
Mr Pockett later told the Press Association the letter was genuine, but said he was “surmising” what would happen.
“The letter is genuine and it contains what I assume or surmised would be the position. It was me advising my bus operator members to be prepared for something and this is what it may well be,” he said.
“It could be more; it could be anything. I think other associations have communicated with their members in the same way.”
Asked about the specific details of the lockdown, Mr Pockett said: “I’ve not seen the detail either – that’s me surmising – but that’s what my common sense tells me.
“I understand what the government wants to do is cause as little disruption to schools as possible, so you start it as soon as the schools finish for halfterm.”
The leaked letter emerged after days of rumours, with First Minister Mark Drakeford already having revealed details of what a “firebreak” lockdown would look like in Wales.
Speaking at the Welsh Government’s Friday press briefing, Mr Drakeford explained why the Welsh Government was considering the move, what it involved and what he hoped it would achieve.
It is one of two options he said ministers were considering, alongside toughening up the current restrictions in local lockdowns.
Ministers hope a socalled “firebreak lockdown” – also known as a “circuit-breaker” – now would be enough, along with new national restrictions, to allow Wales to get through to Christmas. But they have not ruled out further action again later in the winter.
Ministers met council leaders over the weekend to help make a final decision on whether to go ahead with the circuitbreaker lockdown.
Andrew Morgan, the Rhondda Cynon Taf (RCT) Council leader, has said he was pushing the Welsh Government for more financial support for the businesses and individuals who will be affected by the lockdown.
On Friday Mr Drakeford said a national Waleswide lockdown wasn’t the only option ministers
were considering.
In England, the UK Government has chosen to bring in tougher restrictions, which they are calling Tier 3, in areas like Liverpool and Lancashire where the highest rates of infections are being seen.
And Mr Drakeford indicated that Wales also had that option, which has involved fully closing hospitality.
Meanwhile, discussions have been ongoing about whether schools would remain open in the event of a “firebreak” lockdown.
Mr Drakeford’s comments at the press conference indicated he would like to keep schools open but may not be able to “do that entirely”.
If some schools do remain open, it’s likely that it would be primary schools, as younger children are statistically less likely to become infected with or pass on the virus.
“We will do everything we can to keep schools open. Whether we are able to do that entirely is still a matter for the detail of the conversation that goes on,” he said.
Mr Drakeford’s comments indicated that it is probable the hospitality sector and non-essential retail would be among those likely to close. Gyms and leisure centres may also be told to shut.
He said the Welsh Government’s plan would see people confined to their homes and businesses shut for two or three weeks to give the virus a “short, sharp shock”.
He said: “We will all have to act together to bring levels of coronavirus down and to keep them down over the winter.
“We are looking very carefully at introducing a time-limited “firebreak”, also known as a circuitbreaker, of the type recommended by Sage, the UK’S expert scientific advisory group, and our own advisers here in Wales.
“This would be a short, sharp shock to the virus, which could turn back the clock, slowing down its spread and buy us more time – and vital capacity in the NHS.
“A ‘firebreak’ would also mean a short, sharp shock to all our lives.”
Mr Drakeford gave some hope later on in his press conference that people would still be allowed to go to parks, suggesting there were lots of things parents could do with their children in their local area during half-term.
But he gave a very clear warning that the overriding expectation was that people would stay at home, as they did in the first Uk-wide lockdown, during the firebreak lockdown, though this time it will be for weeks rather than months.
If the measures come into force on Friday, the first full week of the circuit-breaker lockdown would coincide with the school half term.
He said: “We’re considering a two or three-week ‘firebreak’. The shorter the period, the sharper the measures will have to be.
“A successful firebreak would reset the virus at a lower level.”
But even after the firebreak, there will be a new set of Wales-wide restrictions. If ministers are successful in stopping the spread of coronavirus with the “firebreak”, they do not want the nation’s hard work undone quickly afterwards.
Mr Drakeford said that the rules would change after the lockdown to ensure Wales did not find itself in a similar position in a few months’ time as Christmas is approaching.
We might also see another firebreak lockdown in 2021.
At the press briefing, Mr Drakeford said: “I can’t offer a guarantee that it would not be necessary to take further measures later in the winter.”
Action is needed because hospitals are facing increasing pressure.
The First Minister said 2,500 people were now being infected with coronavirus every day in Wales – this includes people who are not being tested and are going undiagnosed.
He said the rate of Covid-19 infections was now higher than 100 cases per 100,000 people with an R number of 1.4, meaning it was increasing exponentially.
He said this was translating into significant pressure on hospitals.
He added the situation was “very serious” and “unless we are able to get coronavirus back under control, there is a real risk the NHS will be overwhelmed . . . and if that happens even larger numbers of people will die”.
If the firebreak lockdown is introduced, the question remains aboutwhat support will there be for businesses hit by the measure.
Health Minister Vaughan Gething yesterday said the Welsh Government is demanding more support from Westminster to protect jobs and businesses ahead of a possible two-week circuitbreak lockdown.
He said the furlough scheme ends on October 31 and will be replaced by the UK Government with a “less generous” Job Support Scheme.
He told the BBC’S Politics Wales show the Welsh Government is “arguing” with ministers in London that a “more certain and more generous package” is needed.
From November 1 the UK Government will pay 67% of wages, up to a maximum of £2,100 a month, for each employee.
Staff must be off work for a minimum of seven days to be eligible, and their employer does not have to pay towards their salary.
Under the current furlough scheme workers get up to 80% of their pay – 20% from their employer and 60% from the Government.
Paul Davies, Conservative Senedd leader, said he wanted ministers to address the Senedd today.
“I think it is appalling what we’ve heard over the last few days,” he told the BBC.
“We heard the First Minister say on Friday making it absolutely clear they hadn’t made a decision and we see this letter being leaked saying they had made a decision and even giving timescales.
“That is unacceptable. They should come now to the Senedd on Monday to make a statement and explain that, and also explain what their plans are.
“It is unacceptable they are briefing organisations before they come to the Senedd and make a statement.”
Mr Davies said the Conservatives could not support a temporary lockdown until they have “seen the details”.
He said: “I am not going to support a temporary national lockdown until I know what the details are, what packages they will have to support businesses and people during that period.”
Plaid’s Sian Gwenllian said a national firebreak is “regrettably necessary”, but she criticised the “drip-feeding” of information into the public domain.
“The Welsh Government must urgently set out its plans for a national fire-breaker through a ministerial statement on Monday morning at the latest.”