Lockdown only for vulnerable ‘not workable’
INTRODUCING lockdown measures which only apply to the elderly and the most vulnerable in society would not work in practice, experts have claimed.
The Welsh Government’s Technical Advisory Group (TAG), in its new report on Wales’s fire-break which will be introduced for 17 days from tomorrow, said no country has been able to implement such measures successfully.
Public Health Wales (PHW) figures show that the majority of the deaths linked to Covid-19 have involved those aged 60 and above, with more than half (55%) occurring in those over 80 years old.
However, the TAG said due to many people living in the same households as their more senior relatives, isolating only certain individuals would prove very difficult.
“There has been a clear pattern from around the world of incidence rising first in young people before spreading into older age groups,” their report stated.
“No country has managed to contain their epidemic within lower-risk age groups.
“This is a result of there being substantial interaction between older people and all other age groups, as demonstrated by studies of contact patterns.”
The report also outlined a series of circuit breakers which help ministers determine when action needs to be taken to halt the spread of the virus. Circuit breaker one: The R rate of infection for Wales reaches or exceeds 1.5. The current estimated value from Public Health Wales is 1.20 (95% confidence interval 1.17-1.23). Circuit breaker two: 40 cases of the virus per 100,000 people. The current estimated value is 140.9 per 100,000. This has been breached every day since September 17.
Circuit breaker three:
Positivity rate of tests is over 5%. Current estimated value is 11.9%. This has been breached since September 27. Circuit breaker four: Total hospital bed occupancy for confirmed Covid-19 patients reaches or exceeds 500. Currently it is 488 and increasing rapidly (45% increase from last week). Circuit breaker five: Critical care occupancy for confirmed Covid-19 patients reaches or exceeds 70. Currently it is 40 and increasing (38% increase from last week). Circuit breaker six: Total critical care bed occupancy (for Covid and non-covid patients) is above 150. Currently it is 153 but decreasing slightly. This has been breached since September 30.
The report also added that if everyone is subjected to the same fire-break restrictions, the messaging around them will be a lot clearer.
“The fire-break will have to reduce the national R to below 0.9. This implies that R will need to be reduced in all areas of Wales, which requires a national approach rather than the current locally-driven approach through local health protection areas.
“Simpler messaging and regulations are expected to be easier to understand and comply with.”
During Tuesday’s press conference, Economy Minister Ken Skates reiterated why the fire-break lockdown needed to apply to all age groups.
He said: “Of course, we have looked at all options. The technical advisory group to the Welsh Government have produced a comprehensive report concerning the firebreaker.
“Its conclusions are compelling. Unless we conduct the firebreaker in the way that they recommended, and the way in which we will now be implementing, the NHS would not be able to cope with the rise in cases in the winter.
“Cases of Covid are often transmitted within domestic dwellings. The virus, in terms of its transmission, is blind to the age of people. We have to introduce measures, therefore, that protect every person from the transmission of the virus in order to reset the pandemic in Wales and that’s why we have opted for this responsible short, sharp firebreak.”