Study says Covid risk greater in pubs and homes than in gyms
A NEW study of coronavirus carried out in the South Wales Valleys suggests that pubs and mixing in the home can all increase the risk of passing on the virus but that gyms, leisure centres and restaurants do not.
A study from Public Health Wales (PHW) looked at the evidence from mass testing in Merthyr Tydfil and the Cynon Valley.
It suggests households are the most significant source of infection, while working in the hospitality sector or visiting the pub are also significant risks.
According to the study, smoking or vaping appear to have a small but significant effect on transmission too.
No evidence was found that education settings, such as schools, provide a significant risk of transmission of coronavirus to adults while visiting facilities such as supermarkets, restaurant, gyms and leisure centres also did not appear to increase risk of infection.
The study’s findings on gyms comes following the First Minister’s suggestion on Friday that gyms and leisure centres would not reopen until at least the second half of April and that, even then, some less modern gyms may remain closed for longer.
The study takes its findings from the responses to an online questionnaire completed by 199 people with a positive test (cases) and a sample of 2,621 negatives (controls), with questions asked about demographic and social risk factors.
These included age, ethnicity and occupation, area of residence, people who you share a household with, caring responsibilities, and social interactions in the previous 10 days. Conducted last year between November 21 and December 20, the study focused on risk factors for catching coronavirus in a community setting rather than the risk of serious illness/hospitalisation or death, with 99.6% of those attending the testing pilot being asymptomatic at the time.
Data was collected during the height of the second wave of the pandemic, in an area that had some of the highest rates of infection in the UK.
The mass testing in Merthyr was heavily criticised at the time. Within weeks, the virus was spreading faster in Merthyr than anywhere else in Wales, residents appeared to be no more protected than before. The limited data that was available suggested most residents were not tested, and it was hard to get hold of more detailed information about the project.
One of the authors of the new study is Dr Giri Shankar, incident director for the novel coronavirus outbreak response at PHW, who has had a prominent role in the Welsh Government’s response to the pandemic.
It is important to note that this is just one study.
The science around coronavirus is constantly changing and developing. Just because one study says something doesn’t mean it is a fact.
Each study adds to the pool of knowledge which in turn informs policy makers on how to proceed during the crisis.
The main findings of the report are:
■ in this community, transmission within the household was the highest source of infection;
■ working in the hospitality sector, and visiting the pub were significant risks but at the time of this study were relatively infrequent exposures, due to restrictions at the time;
■ smoking or vaping had a small but significant effect on risk of transmission;
■ working in social or healthcare had an increased risk;
■ in this community, and at this point in the pandemic, reducing transmission from a household contact who is self-isolating would have the biggest public health impact;
■ no evidence was found that education settings provided a significant risk of transmission to adults: working in education, living with someone working in education, or living with school age children were not important risk factors in this study; and
■ visiting facilities such as supermarkets, restaurant, gyms and leisure centre also did not appear to increase risk of infection.
Regarding gyms there seems to be a confusing picture.
First Minister Mark Drakeford has previously said there is evidence from abroad that gyms can be a setting for so-called “super-spreader events”, though some industry