2015 shock seat looking Leaves ‘safe’ a little shaky
WHEN there is a huge political shock, even if it’s a one-off, it will always leave a political party a little bit nervous.
For Labour that seat – or one of them – is Gower.
In the 2015 General Election Byron Davies made history by turning the Westminster constituency blue for the first time in 105 years. Just 27 votes were between him and Labour.
Two years later Labour won it back – their majority was 3,269 and it is still represented in Westminster by Labour today.
At the Senedd it has only been represented by two women – Edwina Hart and Rebecca Evans – who are both Labour, which should make it a “safe” seat for the party. Despite that, for a long while yet, it will still be a seat where those two parties think: “What if?”.
It isn’t a formal “target” seat for the Tories but Labour are being cautious and the incumbent admits that either her Labour Party or the Conservative Party could win.
The patch itself, made up of the diverse areas of tourist postcard Mumbles, the Gower villages, right over to Gowerton and Gorseinon, has changed.
Mumbles Community Council was previously Conservative-led – now it’s the red of Labour.
Mrs Evans says while Labour used to see strong positions in Bishopston and the more affluent areas of the constituency they now find it more difficult to break through in places like Gorseinon.
All this feeds into the element of the unknown about Gower – and the impact of Brexit is still felt from voters too.
To win Gower Welsh Government cabinet member Mrs Evans admits she needs voters to get out and vote, however they choose to do it. It’s also a case of convincing Plaid and Green voters to give Labour their vote – admitting it’s a “difficult” thing for them to do.
One thing that could help Labour is that it’s not a consistent Conservative candidate who is trying to make inroads. In the Westminster election Byron Davies lost in 2010, won in 2015, and lost in 2017. He didn’t stand again in 2019.
In every Senedd battle it has been a different candidate. This time the person taking on Mrs Evans is Conservative Myles Langstone.
The 27-year-old is a local councillor and party staff member having worked for Alun Cairns as his communications manager in the 2019 election and as Byron Davies’ office manager for that historic 2015 campaign.
In 2017 he became a councillor and, when asked about why he’s standing, it’s issues very local to his Mumbles home that are the inspiration.
He’ll talk of the playground campaign and the success of picnic benches on the gardens to help businesses impacted by lockdown.
It’s the opposite of Mrs Evans, a Government minister, who meets most questions with well-rehearsed party lines of the jobs created, money given to the NHS or – Labour’s big sell this election – that Mark Drakeford is the calm head needed to get Wales through the effects of the pandemic. What she can talk of, which Mr Langstone can’t, is her experience.
She knows what it’s like being both a constituency MS and a cabinet minister. She knows what it’s like popping out with her husband and having the double takes or the pointing figures. “This is the kind of job you wouldn’t do if you didn’t absolutely love it,” she says.
“The thing I love most is the people and those I meet and I help and getting those cases where someone comes in to you in dire need and being able to do something for them – that’s the kind of work that I find really valuable.”
If re-elected the NHS is something she wants to talk about. She drops into her answer Vaughan Gething’s recovery plan, and why Mark Drakeford’s cautious approach has been preferable to Boris Johnson’s, but when asked how that recovery plan is achievable given the current uncertainties over finances and any future wave she points to the NHS in Wales before the pandemic.
“We had got to the point with the NHS where we were making inroads but clearly the pandemic has had a major impact so we’ll need to keep investing,” she says.
She points to money that, with her finance minister hat on, is sat waiting to be spent in the health service. “We
do need to keep investing in the NHS and we did so in record figures before the pandemic,” she adds. Her rivals will dispute the shape the Welsh NHS was in before the pandemic but in response she reiterates that Mr Drakeford is the man to do the “right thing” for Wales.
On more local issues she talks of promoting high streets and the “amazing” retailers on them. But the pandemic will have battered already fragile balance sheets.
Business improvement districts and town centre loan schemes are some of the packages she wants them to use and for those shops that are vacated she thinks remote working hubs are the answer.
“Home working is here to stay in one way or another but it isn’t ideal for everyone. Not everyone has a comfortable quiet place to concentrate and, for those, home working is really tough.”
The mental health of young people is a big issue locally. The teens who haven’t been able to
see friends, go out, do any of the usual teenage things. For them she worries about the immediate but also long-term impact. Labour’s answer to that is a pledge about youth jobs – some of those she says are trades and traditional jobs while others are “the kind of jobs I would never have imagined when I was in school”.
Her rival’s wins aren’t dealing with millions of pounds but more modest. Other local successes on the blue side are changing a local bus route, securing a bus shelter, and getting picnic tables in Southend Gardens to allow local businesses to continue serving while meeting social distancing rules.
Mr Langstone says that rejuvenating a playground was his reason to enter politics. “It was in a terrible state and then when I got elected I went to the council and said I wanted something done. They told me there wasn’t any money available so I set about raising it.
“I got local residents on board, made a friends group and we raised
thousands of pounds. That was a good win,” he says, adding that it proves he will get things done.
“We need people in the Senedd who are willing to think outside the box – when I get told no I don’t take it.”
In 2015 he was part of Mr Davies’ victorious campaign. “At that time I think people were optimistic about our message and we had a really good message for people in Gower,” says Mr Langstone.
“The feeling that night when we won was fantastic and we were just excited about what came next and showing people what the Conservative representative can do – that’s what I want to be doing. Often Gower is not given enough focus and it needs it in the Senedd. I think we are being let down. Some of the actions by Labour like the major trauma unit being taken to Cardiff rather than Morriston – that would have been something really big for local people.
“I don’t think we had our representative really campaigning on that.”
That’s just one thing the pair disagree on. Mrs Evans says being both a cabinet minister and a local MS is the best of both worlds.
The relationship between Cardiff Bay, and its Labour Government, and Westminster where the Conservatives are in charge has been fractious over Brexit and the handling of the pandemic.
“Welsh Labour has been quite hostile. I think it’s difficult to have a working relationship with that attitude,” says Mr Langstone.
While Mrs Evans praises Welsh Labour leader Mr Drakeford’s cautious attitude to easing Wales out of the pandemic Mr Langstone says that Labour has done things differently in Wales “for the sake of being different”.
The Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies has said in this campaign: “It’s no more powers, no more politicians, no more taxes, no more constitutional chaos.”
The Conservatives’ position is that Wales should have no further powers. Initially Mr Langstone says he “doesn’t want to get into” constitutional matters. But when pushed on whether there should be more powers devolved from Westminster he answers: “I am not asking for more powers – I don’t think we should be asking for more.”
Yet his rival has been banging the drum to UK Government for her whole term about securing Wales’s rights.
Who the voters of Gower think will do the better job will be clear on Friday.