Absentees make for selection dilemmas
WALES are now without a virtual full team of players for their opening autumn international against New Zealand, with Liam Williams the latest big name set to join the absentee list.
The Lions full-back has undergone surgery to have his appendix removed and is a major doubt for the October 30 Test against the All Blacks at the Principality Stadium.
He joins the likes of Justin Tipuric, George North, Leigh Halfpenny, Dan Lydiate, James Botham, Jarrod Evans and Josh Macleod among the injured contingent.
Wales will also be missing their England-based stars as the game is outside the official Test window and Premiership Rugby Limited rules prevent the Gallagher Premiership clubs from releasing players.
So there will be no Dan Biggar, Louis Rees-zammit, Taulupe Faletau, Callum Sheedy, Nick Tompkins, Ioan Lloyd or uncapped hopeful Tommy Reffell.
In addition, Scarlets trio Johnny Williams, Rhys Patchell and James Davies are yet to play this season after lengthy lay-offs, although Williams is available for selection this weekend, while Ospreys utility back Michael Collins is likely to be unavailable after he hobbled off at the weekend.
Where, then, does that leave Wales coach Wayne Pivac when it comes to selecting the team to face his homeland?
Well, despite all the issues, the front five is largely unscathed and pretty much picks itself. But elsewhere it’s a very different story.
If you look at the back division, there’s only one certain starter in wing Josh Adams, who returned with a bang from his post-lions break at the weekend, scoring one try and paving the way for another.
As for the rest of the brigade behind the scrum, there are a whole range of possible permutations.
It’s the back three which has been hardest hit, with Liam Williams likely to join Rees-zammit, Halfpenny, North, Lloyd and Ashton Hewitt on the unavailable list.
So we probably need to look at the selections over the summer against Canada and Argentina to give us a clue as to what to expect.
Hallam Amos started the two Pumas Tests at full-back following the cruel knee injury to Halfpenny and would appear to be the frontrunner ahead of Johnny Mcnicholl and the versatile Tom Rogers.
Then, on the wing, Rogers, Jonah Holmes and Owen Lane all had a go in July.
On balance, the powerful and predatory Lane looks the leading candidate, having scored five tries in his last four games, and that would give you the combination and understanding offered by an all-cardiff back three.
You could go for another combination in the centre, with Scott Williams having made such an impressive start to his second spell with the Scarlets where he has been reunited with Jonathan Davies.
But maybe Willis Halaholo still just edges the No. 12 jersey, having been part of the set-up all year, while Johnny Williams could yet come into the frame with his return imminent.
Turning to half-back, there is no shortage of choice at No. 9, with the X-factor of Tomos Williams perhaps meaning he is the man with his nose in front at present.
As for No. 10, the two first-choice fly-halves are unavailable with Biggar and Sheedy plying their trade in England,
while Jarrod Evans is in a race against the clock with his badly bruised sternum.
So there could well be a fairytale in the offing with a start for either Gareth Anscombe, who has returned to the pitch after more than two years of injury woes, or Rhys Priestland, four years on from his last cap.
It was Anscombe who won the audition contest between the two at the weekend, picking up the man of the match award after kicking the Ospreys to victory over Cardiff.
The question is whether Pivac and attack coach Stephen Jones will feel he has enough rugby under his belt to step up to Test level against the All Blacks. Finally there’s the back row. The fact there are still plenty of options despite the absence of Tipuric, Faletau, Lydiate, Botham, Macleod, Reffell and James Davies shows the strength in depth here.
With the ultra-versatile Josh Navidi set to make a welcome return for Cardiff this weekend against the Bulls, you would expect him to occupy one of the three starting spots.
Then you have Dragons duo Aaron Wainwright and Ross Moriarty, who could join him in a unit boasting a very decent amount of Test experience.
There are clearly other candidates. The uncapped Jac Morgan was in fine form at the weekend, with Ellis Jenkins, Taine Basham, Shane Lewishughes, Ollie Griffiths, Morgan Morris and Will Griffiths all potentially in the mix.
It’s worth noting that Pivac has said he is looking for more of a ball carrier at 7 rather than a jackal given the way the breakdown is being officiated these days, with most decisions going in favour of the side in possession.
So we could see Navidi reverting to that role, but only time will tell just which way Wales will go.
Likely Wales team v New Zealand: 15. Hallam Amos, 14. Owen Lane, 13. Jonathan Davies, 12. Willis Halaholo, 11. Josh Adams, 10. Gareth Anscombe, 9. Tomos Williams, 1. Wyn Jones, 2. Ken Owens, 3. Tomas Francis, 4. Adam Beard, 5. Alun Wyn Jones (capt), 6. Ross Moriarty, 7. Josh Navidi, 8. Aaron Wainwright.