Swansea Bay schools among worst affected
THE three areas of Wales with the highest incidence of Covid in schools in the past three weeks have been identified.
Swansea Bay University Health Board, Aneurin Bevan UHB and Betsi Cadwaladr UHB in North Wales have all reported the highest number of Covid cases among staff and pupils, Public Health Wales said as it released its latest schools data.
A total 342 Covid cases linked to schools were reported by Swansea Bay UHB in the six days to October 13. In the same period Betsi Cadwaladr UHB reported 667 and Aneurin Bevan UHB 455.
Although rates of confirmed Covid rose sharply among five to 11-yearolds and pupils aged 12 to 16, these have begun to fall in the past two weeks, said PHW.
More than nine in 10 schools in Wales have reported Covid cases since this term began with fewer Covid infection measures in place.
With more than 39,000 cases in total, tens of thousands of children have missed lessons. Staff shortages and a lack of supply cover, also caused by Covid, has led to whole year groups being sent home and even entire schools.
The latest school to close year groups was Haverfordwest VC High in Pembrokeshire. Staff shortage caused by illness meant the school’s Year 8 pupils could not attend on Thursday, and on Friday Year 9 pupils were told not to come in because of staff shortages.
School cases now appear to be falling, according to the latest Public Health Wales report, but a review of school absence data has been announced by the Education Minister after questions were raised about differing data and the way Covid is listed by schools.
While more than 11,200 cases of Covid among staff and pupils were reported in the three weeks to October 13, cases have fallen week on week, according to PHW figures. In the same period 137 cases were linked to FE colleges, down from 241 the previous week.
Since the start of September 2021, 39,015 new Covid cases have been reported across 1,490 schools; 9,344 cases in staff and 29,671 in pupils. From a total of 1,573 schools across Wales, this means 94.7% of schools have had at least one Covid case this term.
Publishing the data, PHW stressed that cases linked to a school or educational institution does not necessarily imply that transmission occurred there.
It said there may be occasions where school-aged cases are identified but they may not have entered the school during their infectious period.
“Linkage between a case and a school does not mean that the cases were in school at the date of the test, nor that transmission occurred in school,” said PHW.
A time lag in the way data is collected means the figures are also subject to change.
NEW data shows that most people who died of Covid would most likely not have died in the near future.
Throughout the pandemic there have been those arguing that many of the people who died of Covid were likely to die anyway. Even if this were true, it would be small consolation to the families who lost precious final months with loved ones. However, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggests that many of these people would not have died in the near future.
Mortality displacement is a phenomenon by which a period of high mortality can be followed by below-average mortality. It occurs when vulnerable people, such as older people and those who already had medical conditions, die sooner than expected. Therefore, these individuals are not dying in the following days, weeks or months when they would likely have died, potentially leading to a lower-than-average period of mortality. The data showed that to date there has been some mortality displacement occurring, mainly since March 2021, though this was not enough to counter the high number of deaths seen in 2020 and 2021.
When you compare the amount of deaths (any cause) between March 2020 and July 2, 2021 with the average for the previous five years, there have been almost 4,000 extra during the pandemic. The graph at the bottom of the page illustrates this.
There have also been over 1,000 more deaths in care homes over the period of the pandemic compared to the average from previous years, with 9,732 deaths compared to 8,564.
One interesting part of the data was that the number dying in hospital was actually lower during the pandemic whereas the amount dying at home was up. The full reasons behind this are unclear but it may point to many people with severe illness avoiding hospital.
Commenting on the findings, the ONS’S Sarah Caul said: “There have been suggestions that the coronavirus pandemic has led to the deaths of many ‘vulnerable’ people who would have otherwise been expected to die in the following days, weeks or months.
“However, today’s analysis shows that while there is some evidence of this socalled ‘mortality displacement’ among older age groups, it does not account for the significant excess mortality seen since the beginning of the pandemic.
“In fact, we are yet to see any evidence that deaths in those aged under 65 or in private homes would have likely occurred over the following weeks or months, as deaths in these age groups and settings continue to be well above normal levels.”