Fear the worst, hope for the best
TODAY will be my third visit to the Cardiff City Stadium in little more than a week but the experience and emotions will be very different this time around.
Watching Wales during the international break, particularly against Austria, was a joyous event from start to finish.
Despite it being a huge match with enormous ramifications for both sides, the build-up to the play-off semi-final was fun-filled and friendly. Fans of both countries socialised in bars without any hint of animosity, despite the high stakes.
This conviviality didn’t do anything to dampen the incredible atmosphere in the stadium though, where Welsh fans sang Yma o Hyd and Hen Wlad fy Nhadau with full-blooded passion. Positivity flowed through the stands and inspired the players, who produced a performance to match.
These international fixtures were happy occasions where love for our nation shined through as we celebrated everything that’s great about Wales.
Today’s South Wales Derby won’t be like that.
Cardiff versus Swansea is a bitter affair, characterised by genuine hatred and ferocity.
There will be no mixing of fans in pubs beforehand. Instead, away supporters will be slowly bused down the M4 and directly into the ground to limit any chance of conflict.
The high-vis jackets of South Wales Police will dominate the landscape around the stadium as tension envelops the area.
There will of course be excitement ahead of kick-off but both sets of fans will also have a strong fear of defeat, because there’s nothing more miserable than losing to your biggest rivals.
Songs of hatred towards the other side will be as prevalent, if not more so, than any songs professing love for our own clubs. Because on derby day the greatest joy is derived from inflicting maximum pain and humiliation on the opposition.
There’s nothing nice about derby day. It’s nasty and spiteful, with acrimony stitched into the very fabric of the fixture. That’s why you can’t take your eyes off it!
I personally have a love-hate relationship with the South Wales Derby. The thought of winning is always amazing but it’s counterbalanced by the dread of losing and everything that goes with that, because one thing both sets of fans have in common is that they’re utterly insufferable when they win a derby.
Even though the Swans’ recent record in the derby is a good one, having won four of the last six and lost just once in that time, there’s still that awful feeling whenever I think about the possibility of losing this game.
It’s so emotionally charged, the backlash to a defeat never ends on the day of the game. It embitters the losing fanbase and casts a cloud which can hang over a club for a long time.
This will be Cardiff boss Steve Morison’s first experience of the derby. Two of his three immediate predecessors were dismissed within a fortnight of losing to Swansea. The other, Neil Harris, had the lovely luxury of a 40-day stay of execution before feeling Vincent Tan’s axe on the back of his neck.
It will be very interesting to see how Morison reacts to this unique fixture and the added pressure facing Cardiff as they try to prevent Swansea from achieving a first league double in the fixture’s 110-year history.
He’s now taken charge of 24 Championship fixtures and has won 10 of them. With the help of a good January transfer window and a much-needed injection of young blood into the squad, he has transformed Cardiff from a sluggish and unambitious mess into an energetic team capable of attacking with both pace and power.
They’ve tightened up slightly at the back and now have speedy players such as Cody Drameh and the promising Isaak Davies to launch quick-fire attacks. The arrival of Manchester City loanee Tommy Doyle in January has given their midfield greater intelligence and cutting edge, while Jordan Hugill and Uche Ikpeazu have given them a real presence up front to compensate for the loss of Kieffer
Moore.
They can sometimes blow hot and cold but that’s true for pretty much every team in the Championship. Morison has managed to turn Cardiff from hopeless relegation battlers who could only hoof and head the ball, into a vibrant side capable of absorbing pressure, with the speed to hurt teams on the break.
My fear is that he’s turned them into the kind of side which tends to do well against Swansea.
The Swans under Russell Martin have often struggled against sides who sit deep before looking to stretch Swansea on the break, where they often look exposed.
We saw this in the last game before the international break when Swansea were fortunate to escape with a point after Birmingham’s speedy transitions cut them open time after time, but wasted a glut of chances.
Cardiff will be happy to let Swansea pass the ball around, ready for the moment when they turn over possession and release the likes of Davies on the counter-attack.
Cardiff are very different to the conservative long-ballers Mick Mccarthy took to the Swansea.com Stadium earlier in the campaign, and with three wins and a draw from their last four games, the Bluebirds will be super confident heading into this match.
Swansea’s away form will further boost morale among Cardiff’s fans. Only five Championship teams have a worse away record than the Swans this season and their away form is particularly dreadful on Saturdays.
The Swans have only picked up three away points all season in weekend games and it’s nearly a year since they last won on the road on a Saturday.
Cardiff meanwhile, who were diabolical at home for much of the campaign, seem to have addressed this problem.
Their only home defeat since midjanuary was to table-toppers Fulham. Cardiff have been gaining momentum under Morison while Swansea’s season seems to have stagnated somewhat.
A comparison of recent performances would lead most neutrals to conclude that Cardiff have the upper hand heading into this game.
But that’s nothing new. For the ninth derby in a row, Swansea will start the match above Cardiff in the table but the Swans have often found themselves in poor runs of form ahead of meetings with the Bluebirds, and they’ve regularly found ways of lifting themselves for the big occasion.
One thing that’s always given the Jack Army plenty of pride is the way their team approaches the derby. The players have consistently proven that they understand the magnitude of the event and what it means to supporters. Cardiff on the other hand have consistently disappointed their fans in this fixture.
Russell Martin has made it clear in the run-up to this game that he knows the significance of this clash and will do his best to motivate his team, as he did before the first derby of the season.
There is an opportunity for Swansea to record a historic scalp this afternoon, a chance to complete the double for the first time ever and give their fans a day they’ll never forget.
Attitude is often the deciding factor in the South Wales Derby and today will once again be a test of character for both sides.
The Jack Army will be hoping their side can once again raise their game and turn this rancid, hateful contest into a day to cherish for their fans.