Your last snapshot of the areas with worst virus infection rates
FOR two years, we have brought you the latest Covid data throughout the pandemic.
Every day we showed how many new cases and deaths there were and once a week we would assess the areas of Wales with the highest infection rate as well as the local authorities where it was growing fastest.
It was crucial to the public’s understanding of how the virus was developing and changing across Wales. But this has now ended.
The Welsh Government recently announced huge changes to testing in Wales.
This will have far-reaching consequences throughout the country.
One of the key elements is that the daily data will be largely useless now for understanding how the virus is developing.
Comparisons with previous waves will be impossible and the surveillance for new variants will be significantly reduced.
As such this will likely be the last proper snapshot we have (unless there is a major policy change) before the Welsh Government turns off the lights.
What are the areas in Wales with the most Covid at present?
There are nine areas of Wales with a Covid infection rate above 600. There is one place with virtually no Covid which was Llandovery, Cil-y-cwm & Cynwyl Gaeo in Carmarthenshire.
The data relates to areas with an average of 7,000 residents, called middle super output areas (MSOA). In practice this means there are statistics for areas like Canton in Cardiff, Morriston in Swansea and Porth in Rhondda. The data shows there are 12 places in Wales with more than 700 cases per 100,000 of the population.
The areas with the most cases at the moment are as follows for the last rolling seven days up to March 31:
Taff’s Well & Nantgarw, Rhondda Cynon Taf – 715.7
Llantarnam & Oakfield, Torfaen – 643 ■ Newtown South, Powys – 637.5 ■ Ridgeway & Glasllwch, Newport – 629 ■ Bangor South, Gwynedd – 624.2 ■ Tredegar & Georgetown, Blaenau Gwent – 622.5 ■ Fairwater & Greenmeadow, Torfaen – 618.2 ■ Pontnewydd & Upper Cwmbran, Torfaen – 615.1
Below are the three areas with the highest infection rates in each local authority in the Swansea Bay area. This is based on the weekly infection rates for the previous seven days per 100,000 people. The data is based on the rolling seven-day average between March 25 and March 31. Carmarthenshire ■ Llanfihangel-ar-arth & Llanybydder – 493 ■ Bynea & Llwynhendy – 387.2 ■ Llanelli Bigyn – 385.9 Neath Port Talbot ■ Port Talbot South & Margam – 330 ■ Aberdulais & Resolven – 321.7 ■ Skewen & Jersey Marine – 320.5 Powys ■ Newtown South – 637.5 ■ Newtown North – 387 ■ Brecon – 369 Swansea ■ Central Swansea – 398.6 ■ Morriston North – 349.7 ■ Killay – 299.2
Of the 22 local authorities in Wales, only two have seen an increase in the virus in the past week. Part of this may be because the rates have stopped climbing; however, given that positivity is still very high it is likely also the announced changes in the guidance are still having an impact on behaviour.
These figures are seven-day rolling totals for new cases adjusted for population (per 100,000 people). The latest infection rate across Wales (for the seven days up to March 31) stands at 311.7, a fall from 451.5 the week before.
MANY of us will be familiar with this scenario during the pandemic. One member of the family starts to experience the telltale signs of coronavirus, gets tested and returns a positive result.
Then, after a day or so, another person in the same household also gets struck down with the virus, followed by another. Yet despite breathing in the same air and using the same living room, kitchen, bathrooms and bedrooms, there is one lucky soul who manages to avoid catching it entirely. But why does this happen? Richard Stanton, professor of virology at the School of Medicine at Cardiff University, explained there are many potential reasons why someone might not transmit Covid-19 to a family member.
The strain of Covid: “It can depend on the virus. Omicron is more transmissible than Delta and so we see that family members are more likely to be infected if someone in the household has Omicron compared to Delta.”
Genetics: “People have differences in how good their immune system is due to having different genes. Some people’s immune systems are just ‘better’ at fighting off the virus.”
Previous infections: “It’s possible that a previous infection with certain common cold viruses can leave you with enough immune ‘memory’ to handle Covid better.”
Chance: “Finally, it might just be chance, based on how much virus the infected person has in their mouth, and how often (and how closely) others interact with them.”
Despite Prof Stanton’s anecdotal findings the true understanding is still being investigated by infectious disease specialists across the globe. An increasing amount of research is being devoted to the reasons why some people never seem to get Covid – a so-called “never Covid” cohort.
In January new research was published by Imperial College London suggesting people with higher levels of T cells – a type of cell in the immune system – from common cold coronaviruses were less likely to become infected with SARS-COV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19.
Dr Rhia Kundu, first author of the study from Imperial’s National Heart and Lung Institute, said: “Being exposed to the SARS-COV-2 virus doesn’t always result in infection and we’ve been keen to understand why.”
She said: “We found that high levels of pre-existing T cells, created by the body when infected with other human coronaviruses like the common cold, can protect against Covid-19 infection.”
However, Dr Kundu also cautioned that while this is an important discovery it is only one form of protection and added: “I would stress that no-one should rely on this alone.
“Instead the best way to protect yourself against Covid-19 is to be fully vaccinated, including getting your booster dose.”
Covid vaccines have been proven to reduce severe infections, hospitalisations and deaths, and remain largely effective against known variants of the virus. However, they are not 100% effective in preventing infection and the immunity they provide wanes over time.
Andrew Freedman, an academic in infectious diseases at Cardiff University, told CNBC that why some people get Covid and others don’t “is a well-recognised phenomenon and presumably relates to immunity from vaccination, previous infection, or both”.
He added: “We know that many people have still caught (mostly mild) Omicron infection despite being fully vaccinated, including [having had] a booster.
“However, vaccination does still reduce the chance of catching Omicron and responses do vary from person to person. So some people catch it and others don’t despite very significant exposure.”