Covid is now spreading more rapidly in Wales than it ever has before
THE Covid-19 infection rate in Wales remains at the highest level it has ever been with infections still increasing, latest data suggests.
The most reliable information about the spread of Covid is now the Office for National Statistic’s weekly infection survey, which shows that in the most recent week, the rate of infection hit a new peak with more than 7.5% of the population infected.
Separate data from Public Health Wales from lateral flow test (LFT) results suggests that the area hardest hit is Blaenau Gwent.
However, despite the rapid and increasing spread of Covid, hospitalisations and deaths are not rising.
There are significant numbers of people in hospital with Covid, which is causing huge pressure on the system.
But the number actually being treated for the virus in acute hospitals, as opposed to Covid patients being treated for another condition, has been below 100 for most of the last week with 17 of these Covid patients seriously ill in intensive care.
We are no longer looking at the PCR figures we used to use for our daily coronavirus infection rate, cases and deaths briefing as the tests are no longer available to the general public and the data is therefore limited.
We have used Public Health Wales and ONS deaths data as well as hospitalisation figures and LFT testing results.
It’s clear from these studies that the virus has not gone away, despite the easing of restrictions, and Public Health Wales is continuing to report significant numbers of Covid deaths.
The government’s focus, however, has now shifted to living with coronavirus and moving beyond our emergency response to it.
ONS infection survey The Office for National Statistics publishes weekly reports every Friday detailing the Covid picture across the UK.
This survey is jointly led with the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) and works with the University of Oxford and Lighthouse laboratory to collect and test samples.
In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive for Covid-19 continued to increase in the week ending April 2 when compared with the previous week. It estimated that 230,800 people in Wales had Covid-19, equating to 7.59% of the population or around one in 13 people. The previous week it was one in 14.
In England and Scotland the picture was similar with one in 13 of the population having Covid during the same week, while it was one in 16 in Northern Ireland. The Omicron BA.2 variant remained the dominant variant across all UK countries, according to the survey.
The ONS data only includes Covid-19 infections among those living in private residential households and excludes those in hospitals, care homes and/or other communal establishments.
All estimates are based on trends in rates of positive nose and throat swab results and are subject to uncertainty given that a sample is only part of the wider population.
Lateral flow test results Free lateral flow testing for those who are asymptomatic ended on Thursday, March 31 in Wales. Only those who are displaying the telltale symptoms of the virus can now order an LFT. This decision will inevitably lead to a fall in the number of LFTS being carried out and returning positive each week.
In Public Health Wales’ latest LFT report, published on Wednesday and covering the seven days between March 28 and April 3, the number of LFTS reported decreased from 240,762 in the previous week to 191,739. Similarly, the number of positive tests decreased from 32,465 in the previous week to 25,611 in the latest reporting week.
There were 808.0 positive LFT episodes per 100,000 population, compared to 1,024.3 in the previous week.
Nearly a quarter (23.43%) of LFT episodes were positive. In the previous week this was 24.37%.
Aneurin Bevan UHB recorded an incidence rate of 852.4 positive testing episodes per 100,000 population, the highest of all health boards, however Cwm Taf Morgannwg recorded the highest episode positivity with 26.27% (3,805). The 40-59 age group recorded the highest volumes of positive tests.
Blaenau Gwent was the local authority with the highest rate of positive tests per head at 1,061.1 per 100,000.
Covid in Welsh hospitals According to the Welsh Government, as of Thursday there were 1,355 people in general and acute beds in Welsh hospitals with Covid-19. Some 795 of these were ‘confirmed’ cases, 25 ‘suspected’ and 535 ‘recovering.’
While that’s less than the overall figure recorded a week earlier (1,477), it’s still far more than the numbers seen in February and most of March (848 on March 1).
This rise has inevitably had an impact on how the NHS can manage and provide routine care, with two health boards going to ‘black alert’ – the highest level of pressure – just last week.
The NHS also reports figures showing how many people in acute hospitals are actually being treated for Covid as opposed to being in hospital for another condition and contracting it there. As of Thursday, some 93 of the 666 Covid patients in acute hospitals were being treated for the condition.
On Thursday there were 17 patients in ventilated intensive care beds with confirmed Covid-19 – the highest level of care. Ten of them were based in Cardiff and Vale University Health Board (UHB), three were in Swansea Bay UHB, two were in Betsi Cadwaladr UHB, one was in Hywel Dda UHB and one was in Cwm Taf Morgannwg UHB. These figures have remained relatively static for the past two months.
Number of Covid-related deaths Public Health Wales reports the number of people dying within 28 days of testing positive for coronavirus. This may start to be affected by the fact fewer people are having Covid tests.
But at the moment, there is still testing in hospitals and care homes.
And in the past week, between Saturday and yesterday, 35 deaths were reported to bring the overall total since the pandemic began to 7,212.
The Office for National Statistics also reports death figures which suggest there were 45 deaths with Covid recorded in the latest week for which there are statistics, the week ending March 25. That is up from 30 deaths with Covid a week earlier.
Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board has, by some distance, reported the most Covid deaths overall (1,909), followed by Betsi Cadwaladr UHB (1,307), Aneurin Bevan UHB (1,207), Swansea Bay UHB (995), Cardiff and Vale UHB (937), Hywel Dda UHB (741) and Powys (95).
The highest proportion of these deaths has come in the 80-89 age category (20.6% in men and 16.7% in women). The highest rate of Covid deaths was recorded during January last year at the peak of the second wave.
What does Public Health Wales have to say about the change in testing and the reporting of data? Dr Chris Williams, consultant epidemiologist for health protection at Public Health Wales, said: “Public Health Wales monitors a wide range of seasonal respiratory viruses without recourse to population level testing. Any arrangements once mass testing ends will in likelihood mirror arrangements with other viruses.
“The future surveillance of Covid-19 is currently under review and we will announce changes to publishing the data dashboard once this is confirmed. This will likely be in a phased way from the current dashboard, moving to surveillance integrated with other respiratory infections over this year, depending on how testing behaviours and the epidemiological situation varies over time.”