Sanctions aren’t what they’re made out to be

CALL me out of step, but I’ve never quite believed that economic sanctions work.

The accepted wisdom is that these measures are a means of creating popular discontent which in turn leads to regime change. It’s naïve at best.

At worst, it’s gesture politics meant to impress the folks at home rather than the target populace. Does it have an effect? Well, I guess that depends on whether you’re buying, selling or just working around the problem.

Iran has suffered sanctions for decades but is still a big player in the Middle East. North Korea is saddled with economic restrictions yet the regime’s totalitarian grip is as strong as ever. And the embargo on Cuba has made the island a robust example of patriotic selfsufficiency for nearly 60 years, albeit at near starvation levels.

To be blunt, I’m not sure that the closure of the St Petersburg branch of Chanel is likely to prompt civil unrest any more than supermarket shortages have sparked anti-brexit riots here.

There is a body of opinion that says totalitarian regimes are most vulnerable when subjected to a bombardment of information capable of breaking through social media firewalls. I’d be surprised if the West doesn’t have that kind of capability.

Then again, if sanctions are indeed effective then it’s worth noting that China is less than a decade away from overtaking the US as the world’s largest economy. What happens when the roles are reversed and we find our trade blocked from southeast Asian markets?

Somehow I suspect that changing our government won’t be the first order of business.