CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
Railway preservation expert ROBIN COOMBES, the director responsible for Vintage Trains’ response to the coronavirus outbreak, outlines how we can best avoid a unilateral collapse.
Covid-19’s impact on preservation
RAILWAYS SHOULD THEREFORE PLAN TO EITHER CLOSE COMPLETELY OR ONLY PROVIDE A VERY LIMITED SERVICE IN 2020
Even before the coronavirus outbreak, my research into the sustainability of heritage railways and the drawing up of a risk register for the sector had led me to identify a pandemic as a risk to heritage railways. It was given a probability of ‘possible (3/5)’ and a severity rating of ‘risk of business failure or multiple injury or fatality (5/5)’. That resulted in a ranking of 15/25 – in other words, a medium risk.
I did not imagine that during my studies that a pandemic would arrive with the speed and ferocity of Covid-19. What are the implications for railways behind a simple maximum ranking of now certainty ‘5/5’ and overall risk of ‘25/25’?
My conclusions are guided by my three-year-long investigations, and have directly influenced Vintage Trains’ own risk register, which now reflects this calculation, so this is not merely theoretical.
Are there measures in place – or that need to be put in place – to mitigate effects that are largely outside our control or influence? And can railways avoid financial collapse – something that genuinely seems possible if the crisis continues?
LONG-HAUL FIGHT
Consider the risk factors for heritage lines that need to be taken into account in the current situation. These include:
●● Sitting in a coach within the recommended distance of 2m (6ft 6in) of strangers, a similar risk to being on public transport – train or bus. Narrow gauge coaches mean even smaller distances between passengers.
●● The ability and capacity of heritage railways to undertake deep cleans of rolling stock and stations, with the added complication of a variety of traditional fabrics and materials as opposed to modern wipeable materials.
●● The age profile of the core audience, as well as volunteers and leaders, tending towards the elderly – with many over 70 years old.
●● The discretionary nature of a visit or volunteering, during a time of potential national emergency.
In my modelling, I considered three different cases for the period in which any restrictions or changes of behaviour will last (see also the table on the next page):
●● Short – the crisis quickly evaporates and business as usual returns from late spring.
●● Medium – the crisis continues through the summer and into the autumn.
●● Long – the crisis continues with further ramifications for at least a year.
There is little evidence to suggest the crisis will be short-lived. Indeed, on March 19, Boris Johnson, flanked by the UK’s Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Advisor, said he expected the peak to be 12 weeks away.
Just days before that, on March 16, the Prime Minister had announced that everyone should avoid gatherings and crowded places, such as pubs, clubs and theatres; that they should work from home if they can; and that by the following weekend (March 21/22), people with the most serious health conditions must be “largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks”.
On March 24, the PM told the whole nation to “stay at home” where possible.
Most railways closed rapidly.
The aim of the Government’s move was to bear down on the spread of the coronavirus, and in doing so drop the number of deaths to the thousands or tens of thousands. Scientific predictions suggested that the alternative, of letting the disease progress quickly, could have meant that more than a quarter of a million people would die.
While the Government’s chosen course of action may, therefore, be the right one, there is still debate about how much it is necessary to ‘batten down the hatches’ with perhaps a later easing of restrictions in the summer and then reapplication of measures when or if the number of infections rises again to keep the numbers in control to match the capacity of the health system. It is an extraordinarily difficult and unenviable balancing act to achieve. This will last until the virus itself diminishes, people develop confidence in the notion of natural immunity, or a vaccine is produced and made widely available – which could be up to 18 months away.
Given all this, the most likely outcome is that the pandemic will continue for more than six months – into what I have designated the ‘longer term’. In addition, there have already been marked effects aside from the directly clinical ones: dramatic falls on stock markets, panic buying, cancellation of sporting events, closure of retail outlets and a near ceasing of international travel. The inescapable conclusion is that we have neither faced, nor reacted on this scale to, a crisis of such magnitude since the Second World War.
Railways should therefore plan to either close completely or only provide a very limited service in 2020.
WILL RAILWAYS SURVIVE?
No heritage railway operates a full daily year-round service, and they are well versed in the storage, mothballing and restoration of equipment and infrastructure. The main problem from temporary closure will, therefore, be in lost revenue.
Annual accounts show that most preserved lines do not have robust funding or deep financial resources, relying instead on volunteer labour and donations to make up shortfalls. That means that if a railway is not running it should be able to downsize rapidly to minimise operating costs – potentially laying off paid staff. Aside from any human considerations, this also carries a risk that they will seek other employment. But it can be done.
However, it seems likely that lines with debt or significant fixed costs that can’t easily be removed (or mitigated) will quickly face a cash shortfall. This problem is not unique to railways, but likely to be faced by many in the travel, hospitality, tourism and heritage sectors. The UK Government has said it will support businesses, although the practical effects of that commitment are, at the time of writing, unknown.
In reality, some railway companies may not survive in their current form. However, the equipment and infrastructure will remain and could be utilised or reopened by another organisation; the collections of vehicles and artefacts on many lines are protected in separate charities from the operating company.
There can be less confidence in the ‘software’ – staff, volunteers and visitors.
If the crisis were to play out quickly with a low number of casualties, railways would be able to quickly recover. However, if it drags out, and there is a high number of casualties, lines will increasingly struggle to survive. In any severe outbreak, railways could lose not only key individuals but a percentage of the core audience.
The impact of such a major outbreak on changes in social behaviour and attitudes is unknown, but it would be surprising if an event of such global magnitude did not have lasting consequences; given the already severe economic impact in China, the world might enter a deep recession.
In addition, since railways form essentially a hobby or leisure activity, we may also be given lower priority – both at a personal level and from government – during a period of national recovery.
While it’s not a pleasant thought, railways might also benefit from a quick succession of
personal legacies that will help towards any near term financial shortfalls. This, though, cannot be quantified.
WHAT CAN WE DO?
What can railways do to survive this? I offer the following practical advice:
●● Safeguard and take care of staff, volunteers and visitors (assuming there are any) as far as is reasonably practical, follow all government advice regarding safety, gatherings, protection measures and employment.
●● Formalise the railway’s ‘community’ as a source of information and mutual help and assistance. Set up a system to regularly communicate with each other, consider if the community can assist others in need. Consider use of railway facilities for other local community uses or hub.
●● Plan on the basis of closure or very limited operation until at least the mid-summer period – and possibly longer.
●● All events to be considered for cancellation or postponement, if that hasn’t already been imposed by government restriction.
●● Give clear advice and rationale to staff, volunteers, members and visitors of actions taken, and offer guidance.
●● Where closure is advocated or imposed, store all equipment as you would for the closed season.
●● Check insurance conditions.
●● Seek professional advice where necessary.
●● Ensure historic collections and assets are protected as well as they can be through charity ownership and ring-fencing.
●● Put in place a skeleton team to maintain storage conditions, oiling/inspections, key infrastructure etc.
●● Take the opportunity of stopped or reduced railway operation to improve governance, compliance and risk, and document with urgency any personal knowledge/ information of history, systems, skills, etc into centrally available digital records; this may become critical during a recovery period.
●● Those who can work from home should do so, and join in meetings via videoconferencing.
●● Postpone society meetings/AGMs or hold them online.
●● Continue with work on restoration or closed season projects as restrictions, funding and availability of people allow.
●● Implement any additional security measures for stored equipment.
●● Rework the financial model, reduce all but essential costs, working on the assumption of little or no revenue for the 2020 operating season. If debt or fixed costs need to be serviced, contact the bank, funder or provider at the earliest opportunity.
●● Commercial activity such as engineering and retail should continue if permitted, and be enhanced if possible.
●● Keep track of events as it is a rapidly unfolding and fluid situation.
●● Plan a recovery programme and fundraising activity for implementation at short notice.
The situation needs to be taken seriously, beyond the obvious priority of saving lives. For it is not too dramatic to state that Covid-19 should now be considered an existential threat to the survivability of heritage railways.