The EU will cave... but not until after May’s crucial vote
BRUSSELS will offer a “substantial concession” to ensure a Brexit deal with the UK after the crucial vote on February 14, Euro insiders said last night – as long as Theresa May survives and holds her nerve.
With EU elections looming, any counteroffer would have to be substantial enough to avoid any more “back and forth”, allowing members states to focus on their number one concern – immigration.
The favourite option today is to support a recent Polish compromise of placing a time limit – possibly five years – on the Irish backstop, it was claimed.
The mood within the European Commission is frosty, with many exasperated that Mrs May failed to deliver the deal she had promised to get through Parliament.
However, privately, many European diplomats express personal admiration for the Prime Minister’s tenacity and ability to survive. And there is an appreciation that her “Teflon” shell saw her fend off the Cooper amendment – aimed at forcing the Government to seek an extension to Article 50 if it cannot agree a deal with the EU.
As a result, Brussels is left with the real prospect of a no-deal within just five weeks unless compromise can be found. While France may be leading the hardest charge for no quarter given, cracks are showing within the so-called Franco-German axis.
In Berlin, pressure is mounting among parliamentarians in the Bundestag to avoid the economic shocks a no-deal would cause, and it is this message that is being listened to by Chancellor Angela Merkel.
“We have a responsibility to pursue this separation process responsibly so that in 50 years, people won’t shake their heads and say ‘Why weren’t they able to find a compromise?’,” she told members of her Christian Democrats Party at an event in Rostock.
“To the last day, I will work towards finding a treaty-based solution for a deal for the UK’s exit, and I will work towards having the best kind of relations afterward.”
One German diplomat in Brussels last night echoed her mood. He said: “Is there room for manoeuvre? To that question I would answer yes, though it will take much political effort on our part. It’s for this reason there will be no movement before the Parliamentary vote on February 14.”
Though there would be scope for extending Article 50 to July, when MEPs resume Parliament after May’s elections, there is JAPANESE car-maker Nissan is understood to be shelving plans to build its X-Trail model at its Sunderland plant, it emerged yesterday.
The firm is expected to outline its decision to switch the building of the new version of the SUV away from its North East factory 53 days ahead of the UK’s March departure from the EU tomorrow.
Nissan previously spoke out against Brexit before giving the green light to building the new Qashqai and X-Trail models in Britain in October 2016 – four months on from the EU referendum.
Ministers rejected claims they offered a “sweetheart deal” in a bid to keep thousands of jobs in the city and protect the company from the post-Brexit EU tariff wall.
Bridget Phillipson, Labour MP for
a mounting impatience. “There is a realisation that a five-year-limit, as proposed by Polish foreign minister [Jacek] Czaputowicz, may be acceptable in London,” added the diplomat.
“It’s important to find something Prime Minister May can get through. For our part, we require this matter to be resolved.
“This may surprise people in Britain but Brexit is not the EU’s main priority.” Senior UK sources agreed. “We are determined to get the deal through, though as a responsible government we are making preparations for a no deal,” said a foreign office source.
“My sense is that, although people talk about a deadline, there is still time to talk this through if we are determined to see this happen. One thing we hear is the concern about making concessions and going back again. Our sense is they don’t want to get into a back and forth, so it really has to be quite decisive.”
This was echoed by a highly-placed UK political source in Brussels. “I will bet my house the EU will come back with a substantively better offer after the Valentine’s Day vote. That’s certainly what they’re telling me,” he said. “They want to use the time Houghton and Sunderland South, raised fears over the impact of the decision and yesterday tweeted: “If confirmed, this would represent deeply troubling news for the north east economy. So many jobs and livelihoods depend on Nissan’s success.” But the Japanese firm has refused to be drawn on whether or not it was pulling the plug on the scheme.
The Sunderland site, which has been active since 1986, has a 7,000 strong workforce and produces around 2,000 cars a day.
Fears are that Nissan could move its production to France in a drive to dodge any tariffs which might be imposed on goods if Britain leaves the EU without a deal.
A spokesman said: “Nissan does not comment on rumour or speculation.”
‘There is still time to talk this through’