The 50/50 bet that the worst can be avoided
LEADING experts last night urged the public not to panic, with one claiming we have a 50/50 chance of containing the virus better than Italy.
Microbiologist Professor Hugh Pennington said: “People have said we are moving inexorably towards an Italian situation. I still think we have a 50/50 chance of it being less than that.
“We had a head start on Italy, where the virus seeded before officials realised it was there.we have been ahead of the game, with a good testing regime, set up early.”
Dr Stephen Griffin, chairman of the virus division in the Microbiology Society, also questioned the wisdom of implementing a China-style crackdown.
He said: “The outbreak in the UK is still at a relatively early stage. In terms of confirmed cases, it is true that this is similar to the numbers seen in Italy a few weeks ago. It is still difficult to predict how this will evolve. “While the dramatic steps taken by China have reduced daily infections, countries such as Singapore and South Korea have taken a more targeted approach that has, for example, allowed schools and shops to remain open.
“So it does appear feasible to stem the tide of this virus without fully resorting to draconian measures.” Dr Michael Head, of the University of Southampton, agreed. He said: “The UK approach is driven by evidence appropriate for the local context. What countries like China do is in itself not a good reason for doing the same.”