Epidemics come and go but this one is different
WE ARE about to enter a scenario that as a GP I didn’t think I would ever experience in my 30-year career. My father was a GP and talked about the flu epidemics in the 1950s and 1970s when hospitals and GPS worked to exhaustion. SARS was a lethal virus with all the factors to become a pandemic, yet it was brought under control, perhaps giving false reassurance that we would prevent the next one.
Coronavirus is different.we have fundamentally failed to contain it and governments must now make decisions considering a balance of a functioning society, while allowing our healthcare systems to use whatever means necessary to save lives.we can only reduce or delay the peak because until a vaccination is made, which could take 12 months, it is likely that coronavirus will infect most of us.
Most of us who catch coronavirus will get mild symptoms. But a study in the New England Journal of Medicine showed 5 per cent of patients in China were admitted to intensive care,
2.3 per cent underwent mechanical ventilation and
1.4 per cent died.
Despite these statistics, I have been deeply impressed by how calm and sensible most patients have been. Primarily people want to do what is right for their family and society.therefore, why doesn’t the Government go full whack and close schools, ban flights, close borders and knuckle down like we British are so famed for doing?
In an attempt to avoid panic, is the Government avoiding actions that may improve our survival rates?
Children are carriers of coronavirus and pass it on to adults with minimum symptoms themselves. Imperial College London’s 2009 study examined school closures during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 and the influenza epidemics in France in 1957 and Hong Kong in 2008.They found that school closures will not only delay peak infection but reduce it by 40 per cent.
So why prolong the time schools are open? First, consider the cost to society. Government experts calculate that school closures cost £1.2billion a week as parents stay off work. What about alternative care givers? Considering for many young families this is the grandparents, who are at risk, this is not sensible. Studies show that 16 per cent of the workforce are the main caregiver of school-age children.this rises to 30 per cent in hospital and healthcare staff, who would need to take time out when we need them there the most.
With UK cases still relatively low compared with the rest of Europe, the social and financial costs still outweigh the benefits on reducing the coronavirus peak. It’s apparent government inaction that causes anxiety as trust erodes. We need a clear understanding of why the Government chooses its actions, and the consequences of not doing these things, so we can get through this together.
● Dr Bird is an adviser to the Government and World Health Organization
‘We can only reduce or delay the peak’