This rotten European poll campaign is not just bad. It is an awful lot worse than that
The European referendum is so far one of the worst political debates we have ever endured and there is no sign of it getting any better in the few weeks left before polling day.
It might not hit the lows predicted when Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton go toe to toe but it still leaves a lot to be desired.
The academic Philip Cowley has compared the referendum to a rotten game of football “with little skill, in the pouring rain, on a Tuesday, but there still has to be a winner”.
There are good arguments for Remain and Leave. Remain can make the case for EU co-operation, the advantages of the single market, the EU’s contribution to peace, prosperity and democracy across the continent, and the importance of stability in an uncertain world.
Leave can also make a case. Europe is the only continent in the world bar Antarctica not experiencing economic growth. The EU is a declining bloc as a share of world trade (30 per cent in 1980, now 17 per cent); the bureaucratic consensus decision-making makes it slow and it has been unable to deal with recent crises around Greece and immigration.
What kind of non- debate are we get ting? Megaphone diplomacy, Armageddon threats and a birdbrain history of Churchill versus Hitler. Some claim Churchill as a Brexiteer, while Boris Johnson has signed up Hitler, along with Napoleon, as avid Europeans.
Both sides are telling porkies. Remain have said leaving the EU would trash the economy, raise the prospect of a technical recession and reduce living standards. All of us could lose £4300 per household per year, while house prices could fall by 18 per cent. Central to these alarmist projections has been the debased role of the UK Treasury, who have already been down this route in the independence referendum.
Leave are on shaky ground. The constantly- used f igure of the UK sending the EU £ 350million a week is wrong. They have adjusted their campaign battle bus to the figure of £ 50million a day but that is wrong, too. These figures are net and don’t count the UK rebate or the money we get back from the EU.
Then there is immigration. Remain say the UK controls its borders, which is at best a half-truth. The UK is not part of Schengen but cannot restrict EU nationals coming to the UK.
Leave have gone for broke on this. They have raised the prospect of Turkish membership of the EU, which isn’t going to happen any time soon. They have used the threat of 79million Turks having the right to come and live in the UK, when only seven million have passports.
Ian Botham said the UK population could reach 100million, when it is now 64million.
But then again, lots of the Remain side, and Labour in particular, cannot bring themselves to say there is any limit on the immigration figures or that the 330,000 net who came in last year is unsustainable each year in the longer run.
Both campaigns are saying that we, the people, are powerless in the face of elemental forces more important than us. That’s a dispiriting message but, as journalist Gary Younge said this week, the debate has become reduced to a Tory internal one about “fundamentalism of the nation” (Leave) versus “fundamentalism of the market” (Remain).
So many issues are being left untouched in this. The losers in this campaign so far have been the British people, democracy and political debate. Between the siren voices of Remain and Leave, there is little space for the millions of don’t knows and a little light and ambiguity.
There isn’t the huge gulf between Remain and Leave often portrayed. The UK is not going to become an enthusiast for European integration if we vote to remain. However, Leave could have consequences for Scottish independence and the Northern Ireland peace process.
There is even the prospect of a Remain vote being won by Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish pro-European votes, overriding an English Leave and beginning to unravel the UK from England.
Just don’t expect our political classes to talk about such things. Too many are happy to let confusion reign.