Why has France become target of Islamic State?

France is one of the big crusader countries and a former colonial power, so they’ve always been regarded as one of the major powers.

Why now do they appear to be facing a bigger, more violent problem than the UK?

It’s very difficult to know exactly. It could be as simple as they have much stronger links to the Arab Levant, a part of the world encompassing the eastern Mediterranean and north Africa, than any other European power and which we currently see as the heart of global jihadism.

You’ve got the conflict in Syria and Iraq as the main places where you see people advancing these sorts of ideas where previously it was south Asia. So maybe France’s geographical and historical connections to these places could be part of the reason.

More fighters have gone to Syria and Iraq from France than from other European country.

Another reason could be a practical one. It’s easier to launch an attack there, it’s easier to get your hands on guns and there’s a relatively large network of people to potentially support you. There’s a worrying crossover between

It’s easier to launch an attack there, it’s easier to get your hands on guns

criminal and terrorist networks, making it easier for terrorists to get their hands on guns.

I don’t know if I buy the logic that says the French are much more aggressive in their secularism and that’s what’s behind it.

I think it probably is making people feel miserable there in some context – but I think we see that in other countries as well. Let’s look at the cold facts. The UK has pursued a policy of multi-culturism and France hasn’t.

But you’ve got people from both these countries who’ve gone to fight in Syria and Iraq and who’ve launched or wanted to launch terrorist activities back home.

I don’t know if I attribute the group with so much sophistication that they’re identifying intelligence weaknesses in deciding France as a target. Maybe it’s because of failings in the intelligence they’re able to get people through.

It’s difficult to predict if there will be another attack. It’s looking increasingly like the one in Nice is in the lone wolf mould, which is incredibly difficult to prevent.

I think France remains at the epicentre of the threat against the West and I think that’s likely to remain the case for some time.

But at a certain point the authorities will start to get a grip on exactly what it is they’re dealing with and become much more able to understand the threat. Raffaello Pantucci is director of international security studies at the Royal United Services Institute