The First Minister’s big door-knock may win over some hearts, minds and votes but it will not win independence. That will need some serious thinking by the SNP. And some serious changes
Nicola Sturgeon may have presented Friday’s nationwide door-knocking exercise as a major move in the independence debate.
But at the moment she is playing for time – waiting to see the developing post-Brexit landscape and the broad outline of the deal the UK might hope to strike with the European Union.
Despite the watching and waiting, the First Minister has to be seen doing something.
She has to appear to be in charge and taking the lead, not least because of the need to keep 120,000 members busy and engaged, 80 per cent of whom weren’t in the SNP two years ago.
But this? A mass canvas to keep members busy. Has it really taken two years from the referendum for the SNP to get to this – a listening exercise?
That is, to put it mildly, slow progress and not exactly prioritising independence. What have the SNP leadership been up to in these two years? Aren’t politicians able to multi-task?
The UK has changed since 2014. But are the detai ls around independence different? Who knows?
Because the SNP – and wider Yes movement – have engaged in no systematic, rigorous post-mortem on their defeat.
One of the virtues of losing any vote is that it offers a release and liberation from flawed politics and, with this, the opportunity for growth and renewal.
Labour’s electoral humiliation in 1983 was a cathartic turning point. The same was true to a lesser extent of the Tories in 2005.
Two years after the independence vote, the SNP have not properly reflected on why they lost and why Better Together won. Or if they have, they have given no indication of a new perspective in public.
The answer won’t be found in the clichés and easy answers of blaming Gordon Brown or The Vow.
Leadership is a tough call. It involves making difficult choices. It entails telling people truths they don’t want to hear. So far the SNP, despite their huge dominance, have consciously chosen not to go down that road.
Sturgeon commands all before her in the party and our politics. Now is the ideal time to tell some inconvenient truths.
The zealots are a problem. The faith- based politics of some is a barrier. The “Big Tent” vision of independence of 2014 is dead – as is the economic illiteracy of that offer to voters.
There is a potential terrain for a future independence proposal but it doesn’t involve browbeating or insulting the 55 per cent who said No.
Or asking, frankly, insulting questions such as “Are You Yes Yet?” That begs another question: Yes for what? Yes for what kind of independence and what kind of Scotland? The answers are largely irrelevant to fervent Yessers but the SNP must know they remain fundamental to most voters.
A future independence offer entails being honest about tough choices ahead. About public spending cuts and austerity in at least the f irst f ive years of independence.
There is, according to Scottish Government figures on taxes raised and monies spent in Scotland, a sizeable deficit – and that has to be dealt with funding it and the kind of deal done with the rest of the UK on sharing joint assets.
Scotland has two big cards to play – Trident sitting in Scottish waters and where Scotland sits in terms of the North Atlantic passageways that mattered so much in the Cold War and do again under Putin.
Sturgeon’s tone and style in her period as First Minister has been a good one and a welcome change from her predecessor. But it has been a little dull, lacking in zest, imagination and ambition. Next year marks 10 years of the SNP in off ice. The party need to start critiquing their own record and limitations to have any chance of renewing and keeping their vigour.
The true believers have their faith; the rest of us need something more tangible.
Last week the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation came out showing the inequality, poverty and affluent areas of Scotland.
There was much that was grim and much predictable. Ferguslie Park in Paisley came out the most deprived area, yet is surrounded by affluent neighbourhoods.
Scotland is painfully divided – not on independence but poverty and life chances. The country needs to hear more from Sturgeon – given her commitment to social justice – about her sense of burning indignation and desire to change things for the better.
Social justice must be made a national priority, with detailed policies from the Government and, at the same time, a demand for Westminster to do more.
Do that, combined with honesty and reflection on why the SNP lost the referendum, and the party will begin to build a new case for independence. They must show and lead – by example – the kind of Scotland they want.
Next week would be a good place to start with the new programme of government but does Sturgeon and her party have the courage to challenge us and, more importantly, themselves?
It’s time for Sturgeon to tell some inconvenient truths