Three months in and we’re no closer to finding out what Brexit means. It’s like a blancmange that can’t be pinned down. And that’s a problem for May
STURGEON CAN LEARN FROM PM’S MISTAKES
Not all is well in the unelected administration of Theresa May.
The Brexit minister David Davis rose to his feet in the Commons on Monday like a man who has recently come out of his garden shed to declare he’s got the answer for everything, only to immediately forget whatever his revelation was.
He said it was “improbable” the UK would still be in the Single Market after Brexit, a rare fact in an otherwise empty statement.
With the confidence of a man who talks to himself, he declared that Britain’s future was bright.
However, his own future immediately looked gloomy when Prime Minister May dismissed Davis’s “fact” as opinion, suggesting she is still very much set on staying in the Single Market.
When asked if this was the case at Prime Minister’s Questions, she replied by saying she wasn’t going to give a “running commentary” on Brexit.
Democrats may have imagined that PMQs are precisely designed for a running commentary but hey-ho…
The comedy in the Commons was great fun but alarming – we are no closer to knowing what Brexit means.
For May, this is a growing problem – she manoeuvred her way to Downing Street behind the image of competence, yet can’t define the most important issue of the day.
She is beginning to shift from being the solution to being the problem.
All of which makes life very tricky for the other nationalist government, the one in Edinburgh. If Brexit is as solid as blancmange, it’s very hard to pin down and oppose.
That means Nicola Sturgeon can’t call a second indy r e ferendum before Brexit as it will be too easy for opponents to define the alternative any way they want.
It also means she is very unlikely to call a referendum after Brexit because Scottish independence will look a lot more troublesome than it did before.
In simple terms, you can’t be a member of one trading union (the EU) and have an open border with another (the UK) – it is called the Single Market for a reason.
So if Scotland were independent and in the EU, there would be border checks at Carlisle.
If the border is the visible sign of a difference, it represents all manner of invisible but awkward issues about different tax regimes.
The British nationalist vision of the UK is what the Germans disparagingly refer to as the Jersey of Europe – namely tax cuts and light regulation.
If Scotland were independent and in the EU, it would find itself with higher EU taxes and regulations while barrow- boy post- Brexit England undercuts it at every turn.
Of course al l this can have answers – but Sturgeon doesn’t like to go there, working as she does on the principle that the less Scots know about post-independence, the better.
The national ist elite are beginning to recognise the real option for Scotland is to make the best of a bad Brexit.
That’s why she has appointed Michael Russell as Brexit minister – his role is to see what goodies can be picked up for Scotland while the UK re-invents itself.
Russell is surveying a promising list of options. If agricultural subsidies came to Edinburgh postBrexit, that’s a boost to the coffers and a chance to end silly payments to rich landowners for not doing anything useful with their acres.
For policy-makers, Brexit means no rules blocking state support – it could mean a nationalised energy company or government aid for shipbuilders. Our huge services sector hasn’t been that successful at selling goods into the EU so no loss there.
Politically, Sturgeon can’t admit independence is all but dead so she has announced a parliamentary Bill for another referendum – an odd thing to do given Holyrood doesn’t have the powers to hold an indy vote.
When considering this Bill, she and others might want to pay special attention to the Brexit mess, as it’s a dry run for Scottish nationalists.
The SNP may not have been as chaotic or shifty as the Brexiteers but the UK is trying to do what Yes voters wanted – untangle from a complex union.
Back in 2014, there was no precedent for peaceful independence – now there is.
Scotland would have made some of the mistakes that May and her merry cabinet are committing.
So take comfort, Nicola, and study the Brexit bouroch – it’s a road map of what not to do.