Brexit negotiations will turn sour, France and Germany will block the route to a single market and yes, Scotland will be independent. A date? Well, here you are...
There will be a second Scottish referendum and it will take place on May 6, 2021, at the same time as the next Holyrood elections.
Tory minister Michael Fallon whipped up a political storm when he told Scottish independence supporters that Westminster would block a second referendum.
But, according to constitutional expert Matt Qvortrup, the history books show that a Yes vote would be accepted by the UK Government.
Prof Qvortrup predicted the Brexit result and, here, gives his unique take on how he sees the future of Brexit – and his prediction on indyref2.
By that time, Theresa May’s negotiations will have turned sour and the Westminster Government will not have achieved the deal set out in the White Paper.
France and Germany will have blocked British access to the single market and several financial institutions will have begun their exodus to Frankfurt.
The SNP will be holding on to their dominance in Scotland. Labour will still be in disarray and Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson will be too closely associated with the Tory Government in London to mount a counter-attack.
That is when the Nationalists will pounce.
Holding the referendum on the same day as the Holy rood election will give the supporters of independence a boost.
They will barely scrape over the line but 52 per cent will vote for independence – the same result as Brexit.
But a majority is a majority and Nicola Sturgeon might paraphrase May by declaring “independence means independence”.
Other European countries will recognise the new country, possibly beginning with France.
The aforementioned might be a dream scenario or the stuff of nightmares but the political logic is clear: The SNP will use opposition to Brexit to build a coalition for a second referendum.
They will not convince everybody but they are likely to get a narrow majority for independence as the negotiations with our erstwhile European partners take shape.
Can this be stopped? Will Westminster allow Scotland to drift seemingly inexorably towards secession? The opponents’ main argument will be a legal one.
Many in the Westminster elite maintain Scotland is not allowed to decide when they will hold the second independence referendum and Defence Secretary Michael Fallon said the First Minister could “forget it”.
But he backtracked on BBC Radio Scotland and said the SNP “need to forget all that stuff and get on with what they were elected to do”.
So, why did he change his tune? Fallon’s reluctance might be based on a political assessment. Holding a referendum is a so- cal led “reserved mat ter” that only Westminster can decide. When the Scotland Act was debated in the 90s, the then Secretary of State for Scotland Donald Dewar was clear a referendum was not within the new Holyrood Parliament’s gift.
Holding an independence referendum is rarely allowed in national constitutions but that can matter little.
In 1964, Malta was in the same position as Scotland is now. Having voted against independence in 1955, they held another vote nine years later. Technically, they were not allowed to do so. Yet, the referendum was held and other countries recognised the new state.
In the past , the Br it ish Government have recognised states even when the referendums in these countries were not legal.
Beginning with Iceland in 1944, Britain has recognised the right to self-determination. This was most recently the case in Kosovo in 2008.
After battling with Britain over Brexit, a dose of schadenfreude – getting joy from others’ misery – wi l l tempt many European countries to recognise Scotland.