No deal May day
Biggest poll of Brexit experts say PM's on brink of disaster
tracking them through the country in order to pay the EU should the products pass into a member state. UUnsurprisingly, the EU has raised conconcerns this could weaken its internal mamarketarket and risk cross-border fraud. By concontrast, 39 per cent of BPP membermembers thought the most likely outcomoutcome would be a free-trade agreemagreement similar to the one strucstruck with Canada in 2014, wwhile 26 per cent thought the UK would ultimately continue as a member of the Customs Union. Just 12 per centc felt the other key aspecaspect of May’s Chequers Deal – a single market for goods but not services – was the most likely end point for the UK’s relationship with the single market.
Only 13 per cent thought European Economic Area membership similar to that enjoyed by Norway – where a country agrees to abide by almost all of the rules of the EU single market in exchange for access – was likely.
Despite a legal commitment from the UK and EU that there will be no hard border on the island of Ireland, a border between the north and south was seen as the most likely outcome according to 35 per cent of the panel.
One thing they were agreed on was that the date of March 29, 2019, for the UK to leave the EU would not change, with 83 per cent saying this was extremely unlikely to be juggled. Nicola McEwen, professor of Territorial Politics at Edinburgh University, and a member of the BPP panel, said: “I think that a second referendum is possible but it is difficult to see how that would come about when it is certainly not the position of the leadership of the Conservatives or Labour or the SNP.
“Without the vehicle of a political party to bring it about it is difficult to see it as an outcome.
“One of the other problems is what the question would be and what would happen if that second referendum exposed the country to be just as divided as it was first time around.
“If the new referendum came out 51 per cent for Remain, would that really resolve anything? So I wouldn’t
discount it but I don’t think it is likely at the moment.
“Anything is possible but my view is a deal is more likely than unlikely at the moment, however we just don’t know because the narrative around this could change so significantly.
“It is difficult to tell whether Trade Secretary Liam Fox and people like that are talking up ‘no deal’ to prepare the ground for it or whether it is a negotiating tactic. The Irish border and free movement are the big barriers to an agreement and that will not change. Among the many things that are possible is that May will be able to do a deal with the EU, but then find it isn’t acceptable to Parliament.” Another f inding of the BPP panel that will concern the Prime Minister, was that 62 per cent of members gave a probability of just three out of 10 or less that the October deadline for reaching a deal would be achieved. There was consensus that two factors are preventing an agreement – the Irish border question and internal divisions in UK politics. An expectation also emerged that the transition period – currently scheduled to end in December 2020 – would need to be extended. A total of 71 per cent of BPP experts gave this a seven out of 10 probability or higher. The question of whether a second Scottish independence vote was now more likely wasn’t surveyed. But McEwan added: “I think another Scottish referendum is likely at some point. Brexit does give a rationale and a context for looking at the issue that probably wasn’t there in 2014. “However I don’t think it makes sense to have a Scottish referendum while there is so much uncertainty about what Brexit entails.”
A separate poll carried out by The UK in a Changing Europe last week found the top-ranked priority among the public was strong economic growth.
YouGov asked 7000 people to rank up to 13 priorities for the UK over the next five years.
More people bel ieved strong economic growth was important than the UK having control over its laws – 54 per cent versus 46 per cent.
Some 59 per cent thought it was more vital than striking trade deals outside the EU, and 66 per cent thought it had priority reducing immigration.
The results appeared to refute the idea that a hard Brexit must be achieved at all costs in order to honour the referendum vote.