A £1600 BREXHIT
NO MATTER WHAT KIND OF DEAL WE GET
complicated very quickly and there would be knock- on effects that would be very significant. It would be bad. How bad we just don’t know but that’s why the transition period is of fundamental importance.
“We wouldn’t know what would happen at ports, we wouldn’t know what would happen with food supplies and medicines.
“We wouldn’t know how the Government and the Bank of England would react.”
Arch Brexiteers such as Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg have been keen to promote potential new trade deals that the UK will strike with other countries to fill the gap left by leaving the EU.
But Roy was keen to point out the practical problems in trading with Australia or South America rather than Europe.p He said: “There are reasons why people tend to do trade deals with countries that are close – it’s because they’re close. “If you’re sending things to Australia, it takes a lot longer and costs a lot more than f iring something over to France.” Roy pointed out that his modelling predictions were based on the assumption that there was no action to avoid jobs and earnings losses. He said: “These are forecasts and they assume that everything else remains equal. “They don’t factor in things that the Government do to mitigate Brexit’s impact on jobs and earnings. We’re also not saying that the economy will definitely fall by a specific figure of GDP. “What we’re saying is that the growth will be smaller than it would be. “The bbasic point is that the closer yyour links to your main trading partners, the better it is for yoyour economy and things get donedon more quickly which leads tot better outcomes. “MoMost economists would say that beingb in the EU is best, and ifi you can’t, a Norway modemodel is best. “If yyou can’t have that, then a frefree trade agreement is next best and if you can’t have that, WTO rules come last.last “ButB I fully accept that it isn’tisn all about economics. “There are pol itical considerationscon and clearly people feel leavingl is a price worth paying.”