It happened before and it will again

AROUND half a million extra East Europeans looking for work in Britain will arrive on our shores in the next two years before we Brexit.

Those who wanted to halt immigration will, perversely, cause the opposite effect.

In my experience, every time the UK Government announces a cap on immigration, thousands rush in before the deadline.

In the Home Office, they call it “the fire sale”.

It’s a simple idea but a very real consequence of immigration clampdowns.

It goes like this: British Ministers get jittery about excessive immigration when their constituents and colleagues tell them “It’s out of control”. A new policy is announced.

Back in the real world, would-be immigrants see the door is about to slam. So they bring forward their plans and a last-minute rush heads for the UK or whichever western country offers apparent riches.

Surge

It first happened with the 1962 Commonwealth Immigrants Act.

The Conservative Government led by Harold Macmillan, worried about large numbers of South Asian immigrants arriving in Britain, announced a cap on numbers. It was very popular with the public.

The problem was that the very announcement caused a surge in new applicants who wanted to get into Britain before the door was closed.

I faced the same problem in 2008 when the last Labour Government wanted to strengthen the points based system – yes, we’ve had such a law since then. The Brexiteers didn’t invent it.

I announced in Parliament that the numbers of non-EU unskilled workers would be restricted.

What happened was that more unskilled workers applied for visas than ever.

The same will happen now. Whatever we think of the highly controversial issue of immigration, I’m afraid the solutions are not that simple.