PROTECTION IN DANGER STRAIT Why diplomacy will be the name of the game

PERSIA, as Iran was known prior to 1935, had been a great empire of the ancient world – and the idea this country is still a great power is important to the people.

It is the second largest country in the Middle East and its size and geographic position makes it strategically important, not least because of the length of the coastline.

The level of shipping that has to pass this stretch is important.

Iran has huge oil and natural gas reserves, second only to Russia, and 80 million people live there.

The country has always possessed a different identity to the others in the Middle East, not least because they have their own language, Persian rather than Arabic.

More than 90 per cent of the country is Shia, contrasting with its main rival in the region, Saudi Arabia, which is largely Sunni.

Wherever there is Sunni intervention in the area, you can probably work off the understanding Iran is having some sort of proxy war. When groups are involved in civil wars – in Syria, Yemen and Iraq – or other disputes, such as Bahrain and Lebanon, and there is Saudi intervention, you normally see Iran’s proxies on the other side.

They have their most famous proxy, Hezbollah.

We see them in Syria fighting on the side of the government and with support from Russia.

One reason this whole matter has escalated is that an Iranian-flagged ship was seized in Gibraltar with UK Marines involved.

It was seized because they thought it was on the way to Syria, breaching sanctions.

Since then, the Iranians threatened to seize a British ship in response.

The Russians are close allies, so if Iran gets involved, you can expect Russian involvement, too. That could come in the form of money and arms, s, but also politically, with Moscow blocking motions within the UN Security Council.

So if the West was to try to progress any action through the UN against Iran, it will find this very difficult.

That is critical from a diplomatic point of view.

If the conflict escalates to military action, the West would be unlikely to win a UN resolution to sanction any kind of response.

But the UK does not want to get involved in a military dispute and it would not be sensible from an Iranian point of view, either.

Britain has had a difficult relationship with Iran, ever since the 1979 revolution, involving a number of confrontations that caused diplomatic relations to break down with Tehran.

There is current additional pressure with British mum Nazanin Zaghari-ratcliffe, 40, serving a five-year jail term on spying charges, which she strongly denies.

We have always seen tensions – but there was a lot of effort put into agreeing a nuclear deal.

That is why I believe both sides will be extremely keen to manage this current situation diplomatically.