MIND THE GAP
Top 6 will leave rest in the shade with Champions League revamp likely to be high on their agendas
FINANCIAL GURU’S REVENUE WARNING
MANCHESTER CITY and the rest of the Big Six will re-establish their dominance in the next five years – changing football forever.
The current Treble-winners will spearhead an expansion of the Champions League and wave goodbye to the Carabao Cup – with the monied elite pressing to slash the number of clubs competing in the Premier League.
That’s the view of football finance expert Kieran Maguire who has predicted a radical shake-up in the wake of a £500million investment into the current champions by Silver Lake.
The private equity firm sank the cash into City last week for a 10 per cent stake, valuing the club at just shy of a staggering £5billion.
Smart
The sum involved was breathtaking. But Maguire, a lecturer in football finance at the University of Liverpool, feels it is “a smart play”.
He said: “The gap between the elite – the top six – and the rest, will grow. At the moment, the Premier League is too competitive for their liking.
“So, how do they maintain their dominant position? They have bigger and better squads. They do this by increasing their revenue streams.
“Can they do that domestically? Not really, with the Premier League being as it is. Can they increase their matchday takings? Yes, but not enough to make a marked difference.
“It is much easier to tinker with the Champions League.
At present, there are eight groups of four. Four groups of eight would be a much better route to the latter stages.
“That would automatically give those clubs involved 14 group games, instead of six.
“It would give additional revenue from matchdays and broadcasting and offer them real financial advantage over the rest of the Premier League.
“That is exactly what they want. There is already huge fixture congestion. Later this month we have Liverpool playing two matches in different continents 24 hours apart. The Carabao Cup and World Cup Championship are incompatible. The Carabao Cup will, I’m afraid, fall by the wayside. It’s already been compromised.
“For the Champions League to be reorganised, there has to be a concession made in the domestic calendar.
Pressure
“They have to squeeze those games in somewhere – and so there will also be huge pressure to reduce the Premier League in size – which will suit the big boys still further.”
Amazon (above) dipped its toe in the water this week after bidding successfully to televise games as a vehicle for Amazon Prime. Sky have a hold on the domestic rights but with the Premier League set to announce a new chief executive, there is the opportunity for further change.
Maguire said: “There is growth left in the Premier League. What you will find after the Amazon experiment this week is that the numbers will be checked carefully.
“At the moment, just less than half of the 380 games are televised – how much could you make if they are all aired?
“Thousands of Manchester City fans might be prepared to pay £300 to see their team play away. That goes for a lot of big clubs.
“They know there is a lot of untapped demand. And when the new person eventually takes over at the Premier League, what I think you will see is that they will keep a block of fixtures back for themselves – say the 5.30pm slots on Saturday nights.
Market
“They could build up their own skill set – technicians, camera people, presenters and so on – and the infrastructure in terms of the broadcasting trucks, cabling and cameras – and do it themselves.
“Or they could outsource the grunt work to a third party. That would provide them with a low-cost entry into the market.”
As for City, where else is there more cash on the horizon? Maguire added: “City
Group see their project in New York as a potential moneyspinner because it is their aim to be the best in the MLS.
“It gives them the ability to generate a substantial following.
“When the broadcasting rights go up, they will be in pole position to cash in.
“Also, it was interesting that within days of the Silver Lake investment being announced, that City had added to its portfolio buying a team in India.
“I think they have looked at the success of the IPL in cricket and think there is demand for football, too.
“All these strands will drive the value of the City Group upwards during the coming years. It’s a smart play.”