No Tory resurrection

Easter break little relief for spooked MPS as poll talk shifts to Halloween

Talk about demob-happy round here… I’ve never seen people more excited about the Easter holidays since primary school.

Can’t really blame them, I suppose. There’s never a good week to be a Tory MP but it’s particularly tough at the moment.

Although the last seven days didn’t have a lobbying/racism/sex scandal, they weren’t exactly pleasant for the Government.

I guess they saw it coming but the Lords’ rejection of the flagship Rwanda legislation didn’t go down well. (Having said that, it wasn’t greeted with the horror I’d imagined. More resigned shrugs than the usual outrage. Really is the end of the line.)

Flights to Rwanda were supposed to be taking off in the spring in spite of, you know, the courts rejecting the idea. But the Government seem determined to make it happen.

It’s one of those weird things governments get attached to despite no evidence it will work.

Rwanda flights keep being billed as “a deterrent” but when have deterrents ever been effective?

The obvious one is prisons – conditions are harsher than ever but has that actually had an effect on crime?

Still, they push and push Rwanda as part of one of Mr Sunak’s five pledges (stopping small boats). Even if they do somehow get the wheels off the ground, it won’t make any difference. “Thing is,” one Labour insider said to me, “he’s actually done quite well with some of his pledges but none of it is cutting through. Inflation is down, there were bits and pieces of good news round the NHS lists. Doesn’t matter, though”.

And it doesn’t. That’s fully reflected in the polling stats. The latest figures show the Tory level of support is at 19% – the same level Liz Truss managed. And we all remember how well that went.

Even among older voters (the Tory core), support sits at 32%, while 23% say they plan to vote Labour. But what’s more worrying for Mr Sunak is 26% say they are planning to vote for Reform UK.

There really is nowhere to turn for the PM. No wonder lots of people are jumping ship – the game is well and truly up. But still we wait for an election. At PMQS this week, Mr Starmer told the PM: “We are ready. Just call it.”

Same as the rest of the country. When, though?

Summer is still an outside chance but October is everyone’s new favourite, with lots of people saying the 17th is a firm possibility.

Me? Well, if we’ve waited this long, we might as well wait a couple more weeks and have it on Halloween. The Trick or Treat election. Ideal time to kick out a zombie government.

‘‘ Support is at 19% – the same level Liz Truss managed