What the underlying data says about Phil’s Cats and the major areas of concern

Discussing the decision to sack Jack Ross with Sunderland sixth in the table, Executive Director Charlie Methven said the decision had been taken not so much because of results, which were, he said, ‘so-so’.

It was, he said, more about ‘underlying performance data’.

In short, that the performances Sunderland were producing in the early stages of the season did not reflect a team that could be expected to challenge for the top two over the course of the whole campaign.

A change was made in the belief that Sunderland’s squad were capable of significantly better than the level on show, with Phil Parkinson’s League One experience deemed as key.

Eleven games on, and the results have worsened considerably.

Parkinson has just two wins and has seen his side knocked out of three cup competitions. Sunderland sit 11th in the table, nine points off second.

Sunderland have stood squarely behind their new manager, but what is the underlying data now saying about this side and where it’s heading? ATTACK Parkinson’s tenure began with an insipid display away at Wycombe Wanderers, but the games that followed offered promise that the Black Cats boss could draw improvements from Sunderland’s misfiring frontline.

Tranmere were dismantled in a vibrant display, the forward players showing fluidity of movement and a purpose in possession that Micky Mellon’s side were unable to live with.

The bounce hasn’t lasted, and recent weeks have seen Sunderland increasingly struggle to carve out key chances for their forwards.

Parkinson has few attackers in any sort of form, and has pointed to the return of Charlie Wyke and Lynden Gooch as critical.

The numbers nevertheless suggest that significant improvement in the team’s general attacking play is required if Wyke, or indeed any striker, is to thrive.

Sunderland’s record in the final third under Parkinson is almost identical to the 14 games that Ross took charge of at the beginning of the season, two of which were against Premier League opposition in the Carabao Cup.

In those 14 games, Sunderland were averaging 10.9 shots per game, with 4.1 of those on target. In Parkinson’s 11 games so far, they are averaging 10.8 shots, just 2.8 of those on target.

Under Ross, Sunderland averaged 20.5 crosses-per-game, 6.2 of which were accurate. Under Parkinson, that has risen only marginally to 20.9 per game, with 5.9 of those accurate.

XG, a statistic used to measure the quality of a team’s shots on the likelihood of it leading to a goal, reflects the malaise in recent weeks.

According to wyscout’s measurement, Sunderland have averaged an XG of 1.39 per game under Parkinson. That’s a minor improvement on the 1.34 under Ross, but is clearly buffeted by the Tranmere win and crucially, does not include the two FA Cup games against Gillingham where the Black Cats had just two shots on target across 210 minutes of football. DEFENCE Parkinson watched Sunderland’s early-season games under Jack Ross before taking charge on Wearside and one of his key messages was that the side were ‘too open’.

Unimpressed with their vulnerability to opposition counterattacks, he talked of ensuring the games were not played like ‘basketball’, and of ‘locking in’ their attacks.

The thumping of Tranmere Rovers looked like a promising early indication of this plan, with Max Power and George Dobson forming an effective midfield pairing.

In recent weeks, however, that cohesion has evaporated and the centre of the park has been an area in which Sunderland have struggled.

Against Coventry City and Burton Albion in particular, Sunderland were vulnerable to runners from midfield and that was epitomised in the passage of play that saw Nigel Clough’s side carve the Cats open at will as the second half progressed.

The statistics suggest that Parkinson’s impact on the Black Cats as a defensive unit has been minimal at best. They are conceding 10.8 shots a game on average, compared to 10.9 under Jack Ross in the first 14 games of the season.

Though they are on average allowing far fewer crosses into the box (12.9 compared to 22.7) their XG against has risen considerably and is a reflection of the key chances they are gifting to the opposition with alarming regularity.

Their XG against in Ross’ 14 games this season on average was 0.94, down from 1.24 in the 2018/19 campaign.

Under Parkinson that has jumped to 1.28. Of most concern is that their performances in this regard are worsening over time, rather than improving.

Remarkably, their XG against for the season as a whole remains the best in the division by wyscout’s measurement, but the recent trend is worrying and must be corrected. VERDICT Six games into Parkinson’s tenure, Methven pointed to the broader picture and the underlying numbers to paint a more positive picture on the decision to change managers.

There was some merit in that.

Parkinson was unlucky in some of the early games of his tenure, but it is clear that the underlying data now is little better, if at all, than when Ross was in charge.

Sunderland, unquestionably, remain someway off the promotion pace in both boxes.

The narrative has quickly shifted from a side that should be in the top two, to one in need of significant reshaping in the January window.

The pressure is growing both on Parkinson and the club’s ownership, with both results and performances crucial in the run-up to that January window.

Supporters will want to see their side not just climb the table, but play with a clear and coherent plan.

At the moment, they are increasingly short of that, and the underlying data reflects that.

*All stats courtesy of wyscout.com