Fears raised over ‘real terms’ schools funding
School spending will be three per cent below the 2010 “in real terms" over the next two years, according finance experts.
Analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says spending per pupil in 2024 will fall by about one per cent in real terms in that year and continue to stagnate in 202425 because of rising staff, heating and general cost increases.
The research, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, warned of a "very significant squeeze on school resources" over the coming three years and concluded: "Increases in teacher pay for September will add to school costs this year, as will rising food and energy rises. These rises look just about affordable within the context of a £4bn increase in the total schools budget, equivalent to a 6.8% increase in mainstream school funding per pupil.
"The potential problems come next year in 2023-24. After accounting for growth in specific school costs, we estimate that school spending per pupil will fall by about 1% in real terms in that year and continue to stagnate in 2024-25.”
It adds: "This will leave school resources and purchasing power about three per cent lower in 2024-25 than it was in 2009-10."
The paper, entitled School spending and costs: the coming crunch, said policymakers, faced a "big fiscal choice" over whether to inject "more funding to public services to compensate for rising costs and the significant challenges they face".
Luke Sibieta, IFS research fellow and author, said: "On top of rising energy and food prices, schools now also face the cost of rising salaries for teachers and support staff.”