Foreword to The Business Year: Dubai 2020, the Journey to Expo

AS THE IMPACTS OF THE 2020 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC CONTINUE TO UNFOLD, many are left asking, “what needs to change?” In the following pages, you will read interviews conducted before the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the content remains relevant because, currently in Dubai, the conversation is framed in a completely different way from the rest of the world. The question is not how to change, but how to continue what was already being done and how to make it better.

Dubai has never been a city haphazardly pieced together; the desert environment and any lazy forces of nature would never allow for such a series of coincidences to produce an city of such strength and scope. And perhaps, Dubai’s location in an arid climate embeds a certain level of resiliency needed to weather this storm. Nonetheless, Dubai is the manifestation of a purposeful vision, one already preparing for a post-COVID-19 world long before the pre-COVID-19 world was disrupted. In his address on the 48th UAE National Day in December 2019, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, emphasized the long-standing tradition of adapting, guided by thoughtful foresight and the intent of creating a better future.

At the heart of our research is a point echoed by nearly every economic stakeholder: vision drives all economic activity. The acceleration of innovation, digital transformation, and diversification are all intertwined to realize this vision.

No doubt, these are all topics of discussion across the Middle East region before the crisis. For Dubai, the unforeseen crisis is a new development in an ongoing dialogue. And there is an overwhelming consensus that Dubai was spearheading the conversation. Coupled with the slow eastward shift of global power from the US and Europe that was already underway in recent years, Dubai is now poised to lead a global conversation in pushing forward. As an example, Henrik von Scheel, originator of the Industry 4.0 concept, hedged his bets on Dubai leading the world through the fourth industrial revolution long before the coronavirus. Now, as the world is thrust into this transformation, Dubai is steps ahead and has the opportunity to establish further prominence and leadership.

In our conversations with stakeholders across sectors, we discussed the paradigm shift that was required to position Dubai as a creator of new best practices and innovations, and share them with the world. The opportunity for this shift is now.

The bright spots remain many in Dubai. One of them being the advanced healthcare sector, possibly one of the best in the world to handle this type of crisis. The overall emphasis on healthcare and the rise in technology in recent years have put Dubai in a better position than most. Indeed, in this edition, we explored the importance of healthcare and education as key drivers of Dubai’s economic success, recognizing these facets as crucial to supporting people and their potential. His Highness confirmed this sentiment in light of the virus outbreak, reminding the world that societies’ true power lies in healthcare, not politics or economies.

Dubai’s trade and logistics links are also rapidly adjusting to new demands. While passenger air travel has drastically dropped, Emirates SkyCargo division is taking a prominent role in better connecting global markets. Maintaining supply chains and enhancing networks for deliveries of essentials has been a major focus area. According to a recent Dubai Chamber analysis, the UAE’s logistics sector has been vital to the global response. Data from the Interna

tional Air Transport Association show a 4.3% YoY jump in air cargo activity in the Middle East for February 2020.

With its proximity to China and its manufacturing capabilities combined with the Emirate’s air connectivity, Dubai and Emirates SkyCargo is operating several flights to deliver testing kits and personal protective equipment as far as Sao Paulo. The airline is also ensuring the maintenance of food imports into the Middle East region. Dubai’s low-cost carrier flyDubai has repurposed aircraft and routes for delivery of personal protective equipment (PPE) and other needed supplies. As of early April, flyDubai had operated 44 cargo flights for such purposes, making deliveries to Azerbaijan, Egypt, India, Kuwait, Lebanon, Montenegro, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan.

And in mid-April, DP World launched an online logistics tool, an ecosystem of platforms, to better coordinate multi-modal cargo transport. According to Group Chairman and CEO of DP World, “digitizing trade will help companies do more business, more efficiently. It will also support the global imperative to keep trade moving during the current crisis to help meet the demand of world markets.” With agility and innovation at the core, DP World is building off its several other initiatives to enable global trade, and this is the latest advance along the company’s drive toward digital transformation. This focus is reaffirmed by all leaders we spoke to in the trade and logistics sphere. Along these lines, Dubai Airport Free Zone has announced its new digital platform for B2B transactions to solidify Dubai’s positioning.

There are challenges and obstacles along the way, one being the decision to delay Expo by one year. This update alters the Emirate’s journey to Expo timeline, but the advent of a global pandemic cements the paramount importance of the dialogue to be had leading up to and at the event. Now more than ever, conversations and collaborations pertaining to sustainability, mobility, and opportunity will have incredible impact as we shape the new reality on this journey.

For the time being, these discussions have moved to the digital realm. Business and public sector activities are further pushed online, whether it be video conference calls or app-based government services. Additionally, His Highness is leveraging instantaneous online mediums to communicate messages of positivity, collective action, and new opportunities.

Despite being more prepared than much of the world for such a crisis, many challenges will be more strongly felt in certain areas of the economy. The real estate and construction sectors were very much excited about the Expo 2020 stimulus, an effect which will be postponed and likely dimmed. Dubai’s vigor in the tourism sector is also being tested during this period. And within the trade and logistics segments, sea freight is expected to experience a drop in volumes throughout 2020.

But humans are social beings, and physical distancing will not last forever. The strategic decision to delay Expo will ensure the UAE can safely welcome the world to an event best experienced in the physical, not virtual, world. And Dubai Economy has released systemized protocol for reopening, ensuring that restarting the economy will be done carefully. There are roadblocks and redirections along any journey, including the journey to Expo. But 2020, designated as the UAE’s year “toward the next 50,” is reminder that the vision, the destination, has not changed. And the journey continues. ✖