Tories ‘unlikely’ to gain in North East
TOP POLL SUGGESTS BLUE HOPES MAY BE DASHED
CONSERVATIVES are unlikely to make general election gains in the North East, according to the new analysis by top polling company YouGov.
The YouGov “model” suggests that Tory hopes of making a breakthrough in Labour’s traditional heartland will be dashed when polling day comes on June 8.
The findings are a stark contrast to the predictions of a massive Tory landslide when Conservative leader Theresa May announced plans for a general election in April.
Nationally, YouGov says its analysis suggests a hung Parliament, with Conservatives winning 311 seats out of the 650 up for grabs, while Labour wins 255.
It’s now published a constituency-by-constituency breakdown of the possible results.
And YouGov says polling shows Bishop Auckland, a Labour held seat which the Conservatives hoped to take, is likely to stick with the Labour Party.
North West Durham, another potential Conservative target, is “likely” to elect another Labour MP instead.
And Tony Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield, where there had been speculation about a Conservative gain, is in fact a “safe Labour” seat.
Darlington, in Teesside, is another Labour-held seat which the Conservatives are targeting – but is “likely” to vote Labour. Labour-held Hartlepool is also “likely” to return another Labour MP. One ray of hope for the Conservatives is in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, a Labour-held seat which the YouGov analysis suggests is likely to be won by the Conservatives. The YouGov model also suggests Tories will hold on Berwick-upon-Tweed, a seat they won in 2015 where they face a challenge from the Liberal Democrats. YouGov founder Stephan Shakespeare said: “This is just a snapshot based on data from the past seven days and people can and do change their minds in the closing days of a general election campaign. “Furthermore, it would only take a slight fall in Labour’s share and a slight increase in the Conservatives’ to see Theresa May returning to Number 10 with a healthy majority.” Labour campaign chief Ian Lavery said: “The only poll that matters is the general election on June 8th but the recent narrowing in the polls is very encouraging.” But some Labour candidates are very sceptical about the YouGov report, and believe the party is still on course to make significant losses. Mr Corbyn left the door open to a potential deal with other parties in order to secure the premiership if the General Election does indeed result in a hung Parliament. The Labour leader insisted he was “doing no deals, no coalitions” and was “fighting to win this election”. But pressed on whether he would strike a deal once the results came in, he told ITV News: “You’d better ask me on June 9.”
The only poll that matters is the general election on June 8th but the recent narrowing in the polls is very encouraging