He’s only just arrived, but this is why Florian is Toon MVP
SPORTING ECONOMISTS COME UP WITH VALUES AFTER CRUNCHING NUMBERS
NEWCASTLE United’s 11 most valuable players according to a team of number-crunching sporting economists can be revealed.
The CIES Football Observatory are a football think tank based in Switzerland who publish transfer valuations based on a metric which takes into account personal performances, the club they’re playing for, age, contract status and the level they’ve been playing at.
It is a controversial system – although the CIES team claim they have predicted transfer fees to a good accuracy in the past – but is one that Newcastle have roughly followed in the past.
In the Graham Carr era, United signings had to tick a number of boxes to ensure they would hold value – and the valuations held in the transfer market.
After a season in the Championship, values have clearly dropped. That’s probably down to the fact United have been competing in the second tier rather than the top flight, which is one of the biggest predictors – in CIES’s opinion – of value.
So here are the valuations of every player in the Newcastle squad according to the CIES methodology.
1. FLORIAN LEJEUNE – £13.6MILLION
The CIES matrix places a big premium on the quality of the competition a player is playing in, so it’s perhaps little surprise that the former Eibar man’s valuation is so high given the fact he was butting heads with La Liga’s best last term. United signed him for £8.7million after a lengthy pursuit last week – and they got a bargain if this value is to be believed.
Newcastle fans will be looking forward to seeing him play.
2. DWIGHT GAYLE – £9.3MILLION
Seems rather on the cheap side given the current market and the fact Gayle was an eight-figure signing last summer. CIES places a big value on playing in one of the ‘big five leagues’ so a season in the second tier – even when scoring so freely – seems to have hurt the striker.
3. JONJO SHELVEY – £8.3MILLION
The midfielder was one of the stars of the Championship campaign and is now seen as the third most expensive player in the Newcastle squad. Another whose value has depreciated for playing in the second tier.
4. JAMAAL LASCELLES – £7.3MILLION
The centre-back and Newcastle skipper ticks plenty of boxes. He’s English, young, talented and getting more experience at first team level, so it’s no surprise he’s among the most valuable.
Linked with Chelsea during the January transfer window.
5. MATT RITCHIE – £7.5MILLION
Ritchie was an £12million buy last summer and performed well in the Championship campaign so it seems strange that’s he’s lost value. A full international with Scotland, he’ll be relishing the chance to show he can do it at Premier League level.
6. ALEKSANDAR MITROVIC – £6.95MILLION
The Serbia striker arrived with high hopes but after a season of struggling to nail down a first team place, it’s inevitable that his value would dip. Available this summer.
7. CHANCEL MBEMBA – £6.68MILLION
Not an automatic defensive choice but has retained some of his value, according to the CIES boffins. The Congo defender has work to do to secure his place in Rafa Benitez’s Premier League plans but he’s clearly got the talent to do it.
8. ISAAC HAYDEN – £5.88MILLION
The ex-England under-21 international is one of the players who it will be interesting to watch next season. He had a little taste of Premier League football with Arsenal but he was a key man last term and returns with a point to prove.
9. GRANT HANLEY – £4.9MILLION
Amazingly, he’s considered in the top 10 most valuable players in the squad when Newcastle look happy to cash in on him. His age, experience and international status must be counting for him. Wolves, Forest and Sheffield Wednesday want him. Unlikely to figure for Newcastle.
10. AYOZE PEREZ – £4.48MILLION
Spanish striker arrived from Tenerife with low expectations but has proved a real find. Didn’t always find life easy in the Championship but has talent and may find himself back in Benitez’s plans from the start of the Premier League campaign.
10 = DEANDRE YEDLIN – £4.48MILLION
American right-back is a work-inprogress but he’s young, quick and has real potential. Surely the first choice right-back now Vurnon Anita has departed.
AND THE REST .... .
12. Ciaran Clark – £4.3million 13. Henri Saivet – £4.3million 14. Christian Atsu – £4.13million 15. Siem de Jong – £2.67million 16. Karl Darlow – £2.5million 17. Rolando Aarons – £2.5million 18. Paul Dummett – £2.2million 19. Mo Diame – £1.78million 20. Jack Colback – £1.6million 21. Achraf Lazaar – £1.5million 22. Rob Elliot – £0.62million 23. Daryl Murphy – £500,000 23 = Manu Riviere – £500,000 25. Tim Krul – £450,000 26. Jesus Gamez – £270,000 It is a controversial system – although the CIES team claim they have predicted transfer fees to a good accuracy