North East ‘could pay highest price for Brexit’

AREAS like Sunderland and County Durham which backed Brexit could pay the highest price for the UK leaving Europe, according to a report.

A team of trade experts at the University of Sussex studied recently-leaked estimates from the Treasury to analyse the relative impact of the different scenarios now being considered on 122 manufacturing sectors.

They believe versions of Brexit under consideration by the cabinet could cut British manufacturing exports by up to a third. The paper, by the UK Trade Policy Observatory, finds that even if the Government is able to strike free trade agreements (FTAs) with every other major country, it would still lead to falls in exports of 34% and 30% for the food and textiles industries respectively.

While food processing would enjoy domestic sales increases that would offset the blow, the overall impact of relying solely on trade deals outside Europe would be to cut all manufacturing exports by 13% and reduce total output by 3.6% as sectors such as carmaking struggle to gain access to markets, the research states.

Britain’s car industry, including Nissan, could be particularly hard hit after Brexit because trade barriers in the sector tend to be high across the world.

The academics estimate price rises for UK-made cars of 14%, and falling vehicle exports, in a no-deal Brexit scenario.

PM facing backlash from North East employers: page 63