Robot risk to 81,000 jobs across Tyneside
AUTOMATION COULD HAVE IMPACT ON ENTIRE UK ECONOMY
MORE than 64,000 jobs in Newcastle are at “high risk” of being lost to automation, according to research published by Labour MPs.
And working-class occupations will be the hardest hit.
The findings were published by a Labour think tank called Red Shift at an event in the House of Commons.
Research by the House of Commons Library found 2.13 million jobs nationwide are at high risk of automation. This is about a quarter of low paid jobs.
They include 64,355 in Newcastle, as well as 17,629 in the Gateshead constituency.
Red Shift is attempting to spark debate about how to deal with the problem.
Leading members include Liam Byrne, a Labour shadow minister responsible for digital issues, although in this case his proposals are not necessarily Labour policy.
He has suggested ideas including a radical reform of universities.
Mr Byrne said: “If what you learn on a three-year degree becomes quickly dated after the moment you leave, then one has to ask why are we offering three-year degrees?
“Why not ten-year degrees offered a year at a time every decade of your life?”
Other ideas include increasing corporation tax to help pay for a massive re-training programme.
The prospect of increased automation is sometimes called the “rise of the robots”, but that’s a little misleading.
Most of us would think of a robot as a machine with moving parts. The problem isn’t so much that we’re getting better at making those – it’s that we’re getting better at making computer software.
Transportation is an example of an industry that might be affected. The day is approaching when selfdriving vehicles will be a common sight.
Shop workers are also likely to be particularly hard hit.
But even if you can create new jobs to replace the old ones, there’s a problem.
Increased automation means increased productivity. Businesses can make more money with fewer staff.
That’s a good thing in many ways, as low productivity is seen as one of the biggest problems facing the UK economy today.
But it means that people who receive the profits from successful businesses are likely to get richer, while many of those who depend on selling their labour are going to find their jobs become more insecure and their wages fall.
There has to be action to ensure wealth is shared, said Mr Byrne.
He called this a “moral economy”, warning: “Without a plan to recreate a semblance of the moral economy, I can tell you technophobia is going to become a national religion.”
A side effect of automation is a tendency towards the creation of monopolies, he said. Firms like Amazon, for example, don’t really have any competition.
Solutions might include a major increase in investment in skills and education, and a rethink of the university system.
But there is also a need for Government action to break up monopolies, he said.
“This will need tougher competition policy to breakup new monopolies, proper regulation of monopsony (when workers have only one potential employer), new minimum-wage rules, stronger collective bargaining and corporate governance reform to make sure new skills earn the pay they should.”
Mr Byrne said the Government should start drawing up plans now to re-train people working in areas which will see massive job losses, such as transportation and retail.
He also said it should be easier for Government to borrow money to invest in education and training.
A survey by Opinium for Red Shift found a third of workers think it is likely that human jobs or tasks will be replaced by automation in the next ten years. This rises to nearly half in the North East.
Mr Byrne said: “We are at a fork in the road. Unless we take dramatic steps now to help people adapt to changing technology, it’ll be impossible to reverse massive trends in rising inequality for the rest of the 21st century.”