How well is the region faring in bringing Covid under control?

COVID-19 cases are now falling across the whole of the North East – but we are not out of the woods.

From Northumberland to Redcar, the virus is decreasing quickly in some areas.

Public Health England data shows that, as a whole, cases were down in the North East by around 22% in the week to January 10.

However, officials warn rates are still too high, while the NHS is still struggling with the influx of patients.

But what is the full picture like across the North East?

CASES

Numbers are falling but how quickly, and how far they will drop, is still up for debate.

Government data for the week ending January 10 shows a clear downward trend as the impact of lockdown kicks in.

Cases in Northumberland, example, decreased by 36.9%.

But officials are cautious. They say people shouldn’t get too carried away, not least because the current rates “remain too high for comfort”.

While rates in Newcastle, Gateshead, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Northumberland, Sunderland and County Durham are currently below the national average, infection rates are still out of control across the UK, in part due to the highly transmissible new ‘mutant’ variant.

And in the North East, rates are nowhere near low enough for restrictions for to be eased. Sunderland, for example, has an infection rate of 414.1. That means around one in every 240 people in the city tested positive. Many more will have had the disease and either not had a test or be asymptomatic.

“We are seeing that infection rates across the region look to have stopped rising but it is not yet clear if they will plateau – as we saw in October – or fall,” said a joint statement signed by the region’s directors of public health.

“Either way, the current rates remain too high for comfort and we need to see further progress.”

WARD ADMISSIONS

The picture here bleaker.

Since Christmas Day, Government data shows hospital admissions have almost doubled. The Covid-19 dashboard – which groups the North East with Yorkshire – shows that 463 people were admitted to hospital in one day at the back end of the period.

On Christmas Day, that figure was is, for now, 234. In total, we have 3,584 people ill fighting the virus in hospital. Of those, 284 require ventilation.

While cases are now falling, that has yet to be reflected in the hospital admission rate - in part due to the delay between infection and requiring possible treatment.

The dashboard shows a steady climb in admissions since this latest wave began. According to the region’s public health directors, the North East’s hospitals are “still under immense pressure” – in part, again, due to the new strain.

And it isn’t just older people filling up the beds. Since the start of the pandemic, more than 15,000 people under the age of 64 have been in our region’s hospitals because of the virus.

Of those, almost 300 were children under the age of five.

And while the decrease in cases should result in hospital admissions falling, another grim milestone could soon be passed.

On April 1 last year, 501 people were admitted to our region’s hospitals with coronavirus.

On the current trajectory, that figure could be exceeded in weeks, if not days.

THE ‘MUTANT’ STRAIN

While there are also fears of new strains from Brazil and South Africa, the dominant strain in this country is the one thought to have originated here.

It spreads more easily but, crucially, isn’t any deadlier – and experts believe vaccines will work against it.

Despite Government efforts to stop it spreading, it has become the dominant variant in the North East within a matter of weeks. Experts state that it is linked to almost 60% of cases here.

DEATHS

Another bleak picture. The latest figures show 54 deaths across the North East and Yorkshire on January 9.

In total, 157 people who died here in the period to which the figures relate had Covid-19 on their death certificate.

To show just how out of control the virus has become, in the whole month of July, four people died of coronavirus in our region.

This picture should improve considerably. Cases are going down, but probably the biggest factor will be the vaccine.

The North East has already vaccinated more care home staff and patients than anywhere else in England.

A mass vaccination centre is open at the Centre for Life, with thousands of people getting their jab each week.

That should soon start being reflected in the figures, with deaths, cases and hospital admissions all tumbling.

For now, though, the message from the region’s public health chiefs is crystal clear.

“We must all continue to stay at home except for the permitted exemptions; maintain hand hygiene, social distancing and the use of face coverings; and do everything we can to prevent our NHS services from becoming overwhelmed,” said the public health directors.

“Whether or not tighter restrictions are needed in the future will be decided by Government based on the national picture, but for now, we must carry on staying at home and keep driving infection rates down.”

It is not yet clear whether infection rates will plateau, as we saw in October, or fall North East directors of public health