In-form Cats are in the driving seat as race for promotion places hots up
WEARSIDERS LOOKING GOOD FOR RUN-IN
IT WAS only a few months ago that Sunderland’s chances of making the League One play-offs were looking decidedly shaky.
The Black Cats had lost vital ground on the promotion pack by the end of November and, while there was still a large chunk of the season left to play, they were out of form and short on confidence.
Fast forward to late March and a place League One’s top two – and an automatic promotion spot – looks more than likely with the Wearsiders the in-form side in the division.
It may have taken Lee Johnson a few weeks to implement his new style at the Stadium of Light, but after replacing Phil Parkinson, he has this Sunderland side firing on all cylinders.
Despite serious injury problems to contend with and the ‘distraction’ of winning the Papa John’s Trophy, the Black Cats have embarked on an impressive run which has seen them go from play-off contenders to potential league winners in a few short months.
It’s now looking like a three-horse race for the two automatic promotion spots and, after Peterborough’s 3-1 defeat by Blackpool on Tuesday night, Sunderland can go second should they better Posh’s result this weekend.
Lincoln will argue they are still in with a chance, but with games in hand, it’s advantage Sunderland. Leaders Hull are five points ahead, but Johnson’s men have TWO games in hand.
It all comes down to the remaining month and a half, so here we assess each side’s run-in, the big games and any possible advantage.
HOME HELP?
SUNDERLAND play the lowest percentage of the remaining games at home compared to Hull and Peterborough.
Of their final 11 games, the Black Cats have five at home and six away, while leaders Hull have only four more away matches from their last nine
Peterborough also have the majority of their remaining fixtures at home, with six to play at London
Road. Is that a disadvantage for Sunderland? Not necessarily, as the Black Cats’ away form has been excellent all season, with just one defeat on the road all term.
However, Peterborough boast the best home record in League One and so will expect that to continue in the final games, while Hull’s record at the KCOM is bettered only by the Posh and Doncaster’s home stats.
PROMOTION SHOWDOWNS
WITH 15th-placed Fleetwood just six points off the final play-off place, the race to feature in the end-of-season games really is wide open.
Realistically, anyone in the top half has a good chance of making the play-offs, which means games against these sides could be huge.
Sunderland face six sides with promotion ambitions in their final 11 with the likes of Charlton (currently 7th), Oxford (11th) Blackpool (6th) and Accrington (12th) still to come. In-form Blackpool must be faced twice, which could be an interesting test.
Of course, it is the games at Hull and Peterborough which stand out. The Black Cats go to Peterborough on Easter Monday (April 5) and Hull on April 20 in what will be two huge games.
There may be 11 games to play, but wins here for Sunderland will surely seal a place in the top two.
By contrast, Hull only have to play four of the sides jostling for promotion with Lincoln (4th), Charlton and ninth-placed Gillingham all to face, along with Sunderland.
Peterborough potentially have it hardest, with seven matches against promotion rivals – Accrington, Sunderland, Gillingham, Charlton, Doncaster (twice) and Lincoln.
RELEGATION SCRAPPERS
WHILE six-pointers at the top will be huge, playing a side battling to stay in the division can sometimes be just as difficult, especially if one of the strugglers comes into form and sniffs a hint of survival.
Certainly none of the sides near the foot of the table will go down without a fight – witness Joey Barton’s message to his players ahead of
Sunderland’s visit to Bristol Rovers tomorrow. The Black Cats will do battle with three of the current struggles with Wigan (22nd) and Northampton (20th) to play after Rovers (21st), while Hull will also face Northampton and Wigan.
Peterborough similarly only face two relegation-threatened sides in Swindon (19th) and the Saints.
ON THE BEACH?
TAKING the scalp of Sunderland is something most League One sides love to do – especially if the Black Cats go on to get promoted.
It’s doubtful any side take the foot off the gas for a game with the Wearsiders, but it’s unlikely Plymouth will have much to play for come the penultimate weekend of the season.
Of course, once the pressure is off some sides respond with a more positive brand of football, and to that end Hull will be wary of games with Fleetwood (15th) Plymouth (16th) and Crewe (14th), while Peterborough only have Simon Grayson’s Fleetwood to negotiate from teams in the “little to play for” group.
FORM GUIDE
WHEN it comes to form, then no one can hold a candle to Sunderland.
Over the last 10 League One games, the Black Cats have picked up 23 from a possible 30 points, more than Hull (20) and way ahead of Peterborough who have collected 17 points in the same period.
In a slightly shorter-term metric, Hull’s 1-1 draw with Crewe last time out was the first time they had dropped points in six games, but with one win in six, Peterborough are well off the pace.
Of course it’s all about what happens from now on, but when it comes to form, Sunderland and Hull hold all the cards.