analysis

With Theresa May poised to formally reject Nicola Sturgeon’s referendum request, the SNP leader has said she will lay out her next steps after Easter recess to push on with her independence bid.

The First Minister has some cards to play, but many of them are fraught with danger. No-one is seriously talking about a unilateral declaration of independence – it gets laughed off by SNP strategists – so that can be dismissed. Less drastic would be to call or threaten a “wildcat” referendum.

The advisory vote, which would not have Westminster’s consent as required by the Scotland Act, would pile pressure on the UK Government and rally Yes campaigners.

However, a boycott from Unionists is likely, which would undermine a result already vulnerable to legal challenge. It should be noted that Ms Sturgeon has repeatedly refused to rule out a consultative referendum.

The SNP leader could also stand down as First Minister to trigger a new Holyrood election, in which her party would stand on a platform to hold an independence referendum in the timeframe demanded.

Perhaps more likely is a gradualist approach, such as progressing the draft referendum bill or putting section 30 legislation through Holyrood.

Theresa May is taking a big gamble rejecting Holyrood’s decision. While accepting a push back on the SNP timetable for indyref2 may have implications for Scotland’s place in the EU, a delay at the behest of a Tory PM could boost support for independence.