Scotland’s EU future should be clear by Indyref2

WARNING: Group says there could still be uncertainties over future relations with the EU before voters go to poll

Scotland’s future in or out of the European Union should be clearer by the time Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold a second referendum on independence, a think tank has insisted.

Dr Kirsty Hughes, an expert on European politics and founder of the Scottish Centre on European Relations (SCER), said: “If there were a second independence referendum in March 2019, Scottish voters would know a lot more than now about the outcome of the Brexit talks and about whether an independent Scotland would definitely aim to rejoin the EU.”

However, the group warned if a fresh ballot took place in March 2019, there would still be “some substantial uncertainty” about the implications of the UK’s departure from the European Union – and also about an independent Scotland’s future relationship with the EU.

In the paper, she argued: “There would be some substantial uncertainty still and plenty of room for debate about the implications of the UK’s Brexit deal in 2019 and of the potential impacts.”

Issues such as the rights of EU citizens living in the UK, the objectives of future trade deals between the UK and Europe and what transition arrangements will be put in place when Britain departs could be much clearer.

And the UK’s Brexit transition phase will be “significant” to the debate over Scotland’s future, Ms Hughes said.

A future independence referendum would include whether Scotland would have to commit to eventually joining the euro and if it would have to make an EU budget contribution without the UK rebate.

The think tank said: “With a much more positive attitude to Scotland among the EU27 than in 2014, the arguments for Scotland rejoining the EU fairly swiftly would be fairly strong but would certainly be contested.”

A Scottish Government spokeswoman said: “As the First Minister has made clear, the choice over Scotland’s future must be an informed one.

“That means that both the terms of Brexit and the implications and opportunities of independence must be clear in advance of the referendum.”