Is Sturgeon now a liability?

Theresa May has survived another week in the job but her problems are far from over, judging from the level of loyalty among her colleagues. While Boris Johnson appears to have ruled himself out for the time being as a leadership challenger, he will be ready to pounce the moment he reckons his stars are in alignment.

David Davis, the Brexit Minister, is hedging his bets more blatantly. Despite insisting a contest to replace May right now would be self-indulgent, few would be surprised if he indulged himself should opportunity knock.

Then there is Priti Patel, touted as a fresher faced contender, but without any apparent talents for the role, not that that has ever held politicians back from promoting themselves.

It may be the worst possible timing to oust May who, regardless of her recent troubles, represents continuity at least, and is more experienced than any of her current competitors.

Electoral suicide

A new PM burdened with a hung parliament may well need to seek a mandate to govern – which means another snap election.

With Jeremy Corbyn being hailed by even the Glastonbury middle classes as messianic, it would be suicidal for the Tories to go to the country again.

But the good of the party – and the good of the nation – are lower priorities than the career prospects of some senior Conservative MPs.

That their ambition has been allowed to flourish at all is only due to the party being in a bit of a mess over a referendum result, and increasingly divided as a consequence.

A similar scenario is unfolding closer to home, where the SNP, once synonymous with iron discipline, is cracking at the seams.

The nationalists, for all their disparate political instincts, have been impressively united on their core goal of independence.

This singleness of purpose has propelled them to successive victories at Holyrood and a near wipeout at the 2015 General Election.

But, crucially, it failed to secure them their dream of separation, with the Scottish electorate rejecting their arguments in the referendum of 2014.

For granted

In the immediate aftermath, the party managed to transcend the crushing blow of losing to the unionists by dumping its leader and heralding a new era under Nicola Sturgeon.

However, rather like May, though not nearly as fast, Sturgeon has turned her high approval ratings into a big negative by taking too much for granted.

In May’s case, it was assuming she would easily prevail against Corbyn and thus calling that ill-advised general election.

In Sturgeon’s, it was the decision to link the Brexit vote with independence.

Perhaps deluded by her own popularity, she believed that if she told Scots their best interests lay outside the UK after Brexit they would support a second independence referendum.

So she hammered on, even as wiser counsel in her party – including the late leader Gordon Wilson – cautioned against such a strategy.

Now she is paying the price of being tone deaf. She lost an alarming number of seats on June 8 and is having to renege on her promise to activists to stage Indyref2 within the next couple of years.

What’s more, she does not have a record of achievement on the devolved domestic front to keep her detractors at bay.

It might not be open warfare in the SNP but internal critics are becoming bolder at blaming Sturgeon for squandering the momentum.

Scotland was almost two-thirds prounion in the election, the worst result for nationalism in a decade.

The rumblings have begun, albeit sotto voce compared to those gunning for May, and the likelihood of Sturgeon standing down – or being made to stand down – is not as implausible as it would have seemed just months ago.

When a leader starts to be seen as a liability it is surely only a matter of time.

Lost shine

Sturgeon, referred to on the campaign doorstep (not affectionately) as “that woman”, and with her picture dropped from the cover of the party manifesto, has lost her Teflon coating.

She may well want to go but if she doesn’t, in her favour is the absence of any credible alternative candidates for her position.

John Swinney, the only minister with the necessary clout, has already served, and been deposed, as leader. Among the cabinet, no one stands out among the next generation as able or ready for higher office.

Angus Robertson, the former SNP leader in the Commons, has been tipped by some, having now lost his Moray seat. That would depend on an MSP making room for him to be parachuted into the parliament here, not beyond the bounds of possibility with the list system.

Maybe with a re-invigorated command the SNP might win back support, but it looks like their bird has flown and sooner or later their leader will have to follow suit.

A star fading? Nicola Sturgeon could be facing the same problems as Prime Minister Theresa May, according to Jenny.