Rural secretary warning against ‘cliff-edge Brexit’

Rural Economy Secretary Fergus Ewing yesterday warned against a “cliff-edge Brexit in early 2019” following the publication of a report into potential policy scenarios for the sector after Brexit.

Funded by all four UK administrations and carried out by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, the report looked at three scenarios – a bespoke free trade agreement with the EU, World Trade Organisation (WTO) default most favoured nation tariffs, and unilateral trade liberalisation.

It found that in every scenario markets would be disrupted and some, or all, producers would face lower returns. In certain cases there was also the possibility of higher consumer prices.

Mr Ewing said: “This report clearly shows that failure to reach a deal with the EU, combined with taking a complete free trade approach, would disrupt every sector of agriculture, with beef production in Scotland particularly affected. Even if the UK fell back on WTO tariffs, the impact for some farmers would be catastrophic, with our hill farmers paying the price.

“In the best case scenario, where the UK Government secures a trade deal with the EU on close to Single Market terms, this would still lead to farmers and consumers being worse off than they are.”

He said a ‘no deal’ scenario should not be considered as an option.

“Walking away from the EU with no deal would be disastrous for farming and food production, would harm Scotland’s economy, with consumers paying the price,” he added.

NFU Scotland agreed there should be no “Brexit cliff edge” for Scottish farmers and crofters.

The union’s president, Andrew McCornick, said: “A phased transition is necessary to offer certainty and stability in the short to medium term.”

Fergus Ewing.