Sturgeon under fire over £13.3bn deficit

Figures show SNP tried to con public in run-up to independence vote, claim opposition parties

Nicola Sturgeon denied she tried to “con” the public over the financial prospects of an independent Scotland after official figures showed SNP oil estimates were billions out.

The country spent £13.3 billion more than it made in revenue in 2016-17, according to Scottish Government data. That deficit is down £1.2bn on the previous year, although progress has lagged behind that of the UK’s.

Scotland was slated for independence in 2016 in the event of a Yes vote and the SNP administration predicted the new state would start out life buoyed by up to £7.9bn in North Sea revenues.

The official figures published yesterday showed Scotland’s share of the actual oil and gas take for 2016-17 was £208m.

Ms Sturgeon hit back at claims from opponents that the figures in the white paper for independence were “essentially a con”, saying “nobody foresaw the decline in the oil price”.

“The figures that were published were based on the best available evidence at that time,” she told a press briefing.

“The oil price that the Scottish Government was projecting at that time was actually lower than was being projected by certain parts of the UK Government.

“We saw a quite significant shock to the Scottish economy in terms of what happened with oil and that explains the difference between the white paper and the figures today.”

At £13.3bn, the deficit amounts to 8.3% of the Scottish economy’s total output, compared with the UK figure of 2.4%.

In 2015-16, the revenue and spending gap was £14.5bn, which as a share of GDP was 9.3% in Scotland and 3.8% for the UK.

The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) data is published annually as an estimate of the public money spent in Scotland and how much was raised in taxes and other revenue, across all levels of government.

Driven by the slump in oil revenues, the deficit has widened in recent years, having previously been in surplus.

While the GERS statistics show Scotland’s North Sea revenues increased to £208m, from £56m in 2015-16, that is significantly down on the £8bn posted in 2011-12.

Murdo Fraser, for the Scottish Conservatives, said: “In 2014, Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon looked Scottish families in the eye and insisted we’d be better off,” he added.

“In fact, in the first year of independence, Scotland would have been staring at the biggest deficit in Europe.”

Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale said: “Scotland’s own accounts show that the first year of an independent Scotland would have meant unprecedented levels of austerity.”

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie called on the Scottish Government to provide a “formal written explanation to show why its taxpayer-funded independence white paper was so hopelessly wrong on oil revenues”.

The Scottish Greens’ co-convener Patrick Harvie said: “What these figures really show is that Scotland needs to build a clean economy that does not rely on oil and gas.”

Top: Scotland’s North Sea oil and gas revenues increased to £208m; and above, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and Scottish Conservatives MSP Murdo Fraser. Pictures: PA./Kim Cessford.

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