Dilemma for Sturgeon as poll shows backing for independence falls

Referendum: ‘Tough choice’ for First Minister, says politics professor

Nicola Sturgeon must hold an independence vote by 2021 or risk “passing up the chance of ever holding one”, according to research by a leading pollster.

Support for both independence and another referendum in the next five years has fallen, a Yougov poll revealed yesterday.

The survey also concludes it is unlikely the Scottish Parliament would retain its pro-independence majority in the next election.

There was also bad news for Labour, with support for the party in Scotland dropping at the same time as Jeremy Corbyn’s approval rating turned negative.

A poll for The Times Scotland found 43% want independence, with 57% in favour of remaining part of the UK. Backing for a breakaway has dipped since October last year and is below the 45% from the 2014 vote.

Just over a third (36%) support

“Ms Sturgeon finds herself facing a tough choice this autumn: hold a referendum next year but risk losing – or delay and so perhaps pass up the chance of ever holding one at all. SIR JOHN CURTICE

Indyref2 in the next five years, compared with 39% in October.

On current voter intentions, the SNP would emerge as comfortably the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, the survey revealed, but with 10 fewer seats.

Despite the Scottish Greens adding to their total, it would not be enough to secure majority support for independence in Holyrood.

Sir John Curtice, politics professor at Strathclyde University, said: “Ms Sturgeon finds herself facing a tough choice this autumn: hold a referendum next year but risk losing – or delay and so perhaps pass up the chance of ever holding one at all.”

The SNP’S Derek Mackay said public opinion had taken a “dramatic turn” against Jeremy Corbyn because of his “support for a Tory hard Brexit”.

Mr Mackay added: “The fact that Scotland is being dragged out of the EU against our will, with all of the damage that will cause to jobs and our economy, underlines the need for Scotland to control our own future. Independence would allow us to do so, and support for an independent Scotland, across a range of polls, remains at historically high levels.”

A Scottish Labour spokesman said: “It is clear that Scots are getting increasingly fed up of the SNP constitutional fixation and their failures in Government.”

gmcpherson@thecourier.co.uk

Picture: Getty. Jeremy Corbyn, left, and Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard. Support for the party has dropped, while Corbyn’s approval rating is negative.