An economic maelstrom

Trade wars, Brexit, the death of the High Street? Sometimes one column isn’t enough to reflect the economic maelstrom we are facing. But let me try. Firstly, the decision by Trump – apologies, I struggle to attach the word President to that name – to put tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium.

If you can ignore the fact this is from a man who used cheap steel imports to build some of his US playgrounds and make himself (allegedly) rich, this is Trump making good on a promise to put America’s interests ahead of rivals in China and Europe.

While there will be some exceptions, the new tariffs are a blunt instrument.

I suspect Europe’s reply – to threaten tariffs on American icons such as Levi jeans, Harley-davidson and bourbon – is exactly the reaction Trump hoped for as he plays to his isolationist political base.

But the introduction of significant trade tariffs is greater than a personal political play and, I suspect, will ultimately backfire on Trump as the immediate America First PR coup is lost and the gears of the global economy grind ever more slowly.

No matter Trump’s policy, America’s exposure to the global economy is great and when the world sneezes, the US will be among those to catch a cold.

Unfortunately, the UK and Europe will also start to feel ill, a situation that can only exacerbate the adverse impacts of Brexit we are already seeing.

In a little over a year’s time, the deed will be done: our divorce from the EU rubber-stamped.

Although there will be a transition phase of up to two years, there is widespread concern the UK Government does not yet have a coherent plan to steer Britain through the minefield.

Chancellor Philip Hammond’s Budget-replacing spring statement did little to convince me otherwise.

There is a nervousness over our collective economic future, and those fears are becoming a tangible reality.

That takes me to the UK High Street and the chaos we are seeing there.

Bank branches are closing at an unprecedented rate and high street stalwart retailers are drastically cutting their store estates in the face of increased online competition and lower disposable incomes.

In a long-term cycle of anaemic economic growth, the last thing needed is more obstacles placed in the road of the private sector by our political overlords.

But, I fear, this is just the beginning. ghuband@thecourier.co.uk

Picture: AP Donald Trump signs into law new tariffs on the import into the US of steel and aluminum.